What candidate do you think will be our next president?

ttf_alownx
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_alownx » Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:55 am

What candidate do you think will be our next president? This is not a question about who you support, but rather who you think will win. Candidates listed in alphabetical order of last name.
ttf_BGuttman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_BGuttman » Wed Apr 06, 2016 6:54 am

I'm going to say Hillary for the following scenario:

1.  The Dump Trump movement succeeds in getting a Brokered Convention in Cleveland.  The delegates ignore both Trump and Cruz (mainstream Republicans hate them both) and put forth a dark horse in some later ballot.  Maybe Kasich, maybe JEB, maybe even Huntsman.

2.  Trump abrogates the agreement to support the candidate and runs a 3rd Party.  In many States he will have to run as a Write-In since the filing deadline needs to be several weeks before the election

3.  Hillary wins enough delegates to the Democratic convention to get nominated.  Maybe asks Bernie to be VP.

4.  In the General, many Republicans stay home.  Others will bolt and vote for Trump, siphoning votes from whomever the Republicans manage to nominate.  This also provides a strong coattail effect bringing in Democrats to the marginal House and Senate seats (often these are won by the Presidential party in Presidential Elections and won by the Opposition Party in By-elections).

With a grudging majority in the Senate, Hillary can nominate a Liberal to SCOTUS replacing Scalia, and another to replace Ruth Bader Ginzburg.  Who knows?  Maybe even Barack Obama (remember Taft?).

The Republican party splits into two factions: Republicans and TEA.  The TEA Party are the hard line Conservatives.  This also splits the electorate, with aging Boomers and Millennials joining the TEA Party.  Until enough Boomers die off this will be a permanent fracture on the Right.
ttf_ddickerson
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_ddickerson » Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:18 am

I agree with Bruce's analysis and conclusions, except the part about boomers and millennials.

The republican party needs to be purged such that it represents the conservatives once again.


ttf_SethMatrix
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_SethMatrix » Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:46 am

Quote from: BGuttman on Apr 06, 2016, 06:54AMThe Republican party splits into two factions: Republicans and TEA.  The TEA Party are the hard line Conservatives.  This also splits the electorate, with aging Boomers and Millennials joining the TEA Party.  Until enough Boomers die off this will be a permanent fracture on the Right.

Millennials in the TEA party? HAH!  Image Image  Image Image Image


ttf_Dan Hine
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Dan Hine » Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:46 am

I'm going to hope it's none of the above.  There ARE other choices.
ttf_BGuttman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_BGuttman » Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:52 am

Quote from: Dan Hine on Apr 06, 2016, 08:46AMI'm going to hope it's none of the above.  There ARE other choices.

The Primary selection process has yielded these 4.

Now if you want to write in Mickey Mouse or None of the Above, that's another matter. Image

In a Brokered Convention (most likely for the Republicans) a dark horse may emerge.  Probably not Rubio.  I would lean to JEB Bush or Kasich.

I'm sure Joe Biden has wished the Hillary-Bernie race was closer with neither one winning so he could be a Dark Horse for the Democrats.
ttf_Dan Hine
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Dan Hine » Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:56 am

Quote from: BGuttman on Apr 06, 2016, 08:52AMThe Primary selection process has yielded these 4.



Sure, from the Republican and Democrat parties.  You're implying those are the only people running. That isn't correct.
ttf_Baron von Bone
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Baron von Bone » Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:56 am

Quote from: BGuttman on Apr 06, 2016, 06:54AMThe Republican party splits into two factions: Republicans and TEA.  The TEA Party are the hard line Conservatives.  This also splits the electorate, with aging Boomers and Millennials joining the TEA Party.  Until enough Boomers die off this will be a permanent fracture on the Right.
I've been thinking the GOP needs to split and just get it done and over with for about 30 years now (the fanatics have just been too convenient for most of that time, before going all Palinstein and Trumpenstein on them), so we'll have at least two viable and rational parties. The new radical conservative and neocon types need to make their own party (TEA Party or whatever--they immediately and massively hijacked that one from the adult originators too), and the GOP can return to viability with the adults back in charge. Then most Americans may actually have a real choice between candidates.
ttf_robcat2075
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_robcat2075 » Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:08 am

I picked Hillary, but I can image Cruz maybe winning...

-After a year of Trump, Cruz might be perceived as the sensible one. No matter what crazy thing he's done in the past it will always look less crazy than Trump.

-Outside of professional pundit people he's not well known. He could put on a new public face.

-I think the GOP can out fundraise the Dems this year. Hillary is not a candidate that the Dems have a big attachment to.


Quote from: SethMatrix on Apr 06, 2016, 07:46AMMillennials in the TEA party? HAH! 

It's the hats


ttf_patrickosmith
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_patrickosmith » Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:24 am

Quote from: Dan Hine on Apr 06, 2016, 08:56AMSure, from the Republican and Democrat parties.  You're implying those are the only people running. That isn't correct.
I can't figure why *anybody* would want that job. What a pain in the a***! No wonder why we have the current field of candidates.
ttf_Matt K
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Matt K » Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:10 am

ttf_Exzaclee
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Exzaclee » Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:58 am

Sanders.

Pay attention.
ttf_elmsandr
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_elmsandr » Wed Apr 06, 2016 12:30 pm

Quote from: Dan Hine on Apr 06, 2016, 08:56AMSure, from the Republican and Democrat parties.  You're implying those are the only people running. That isn't correct.
Homer "I can vote third party!"

Kang "Go ahead, throw your vote away."

Image

Kodos might be a better option,
Andy
ttf_Dan Hine
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Dan Hine » Wed Apr 06, 2016 1:27 pm

Quote from: elmsandr on Apr 06, 2016, 12:30PM
"Go ahead, throw your vote away."



I will never feel bad about voting for someone who I think would do a better job.  I think the only reason more people don't vote for an alternative to R/D is because the media doesn't present any other option.  Far too many people rely on the media to tell them what their options are.


ttf_B0B
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_B0B » Wed Apr 06, 2016 1:53 pm

I would put current odds on Clinton. I think even if Sanders comes close to her delegate count, the establishment and super delegates would much rather see her. She is the most status quo after all.

And really, the GOP has no sign of a candidate that is tolerable by most of the population. Trump would bring more people to the poles against him than for him, and I get the feeling that if Trump went out of the way and people could focus on Cruz, they would dislike him even more.
ttf_B0B
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_B0B » Wed Apr 06, 2016 2:11 pm

Quote from: Dan Hine on Apr 06, 2016, 08:46AMI'm going to hope it's none of the above.  There ARE other choices.
Who are on enough ballots in enough states to win? Doubtful. Kasich has a better shot of taking it all the way.

And seems like the green and libertarian parties are currently little more than extreme versions of the GOP/Dems. Libertarian being the fiscal fantasies of the gop, and green being a socialist and hippie version of the dems.

Quote from: ddickerson on Apr 06, 2016, 07:18AMThe republican party needs to be purged such that it represents the conservatives once again. Attempting to "purge" the party of non-conservatives is what opened them up to the current nonsense they are in now. You don't grow by getting more exclusive. And you certainly don't grow in the long term by putting forth a meaningless platform of opposition.
ttf_bonearzt
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_bonearzt » Wed Apr 06, 2016 2:23 pm

They all scare the crap out of me!

Wish there was a "None of the Above" selection.....
ttf_robcat2075
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_robcat2075 » Wed Apr 06, 2016 2:48 pm

Quote from: bonearzt on Apr 06, 2016, 02:23PMThey all scare the crap out of me!

Wish there was a "None of the Above" selection.....


I would say that Bernie and Trump were the "none of the above" candidacies for people who are not satisfied with the result of past standard party establishment choices.




ttf_jalapeno
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_jalapeno » Wed Apr 06, 2016 3:52 pm

Bill Clinton will be FMOTUS

which would be weird

....maybe
ttf_Baron von Bone
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Baron von Bone » Wed Apr 06, 2016 3:56 pm

Quote from: jalapeno on Apr 06, 2016, 03:52PMBill Clinton will be FMOTUS
 
which would be weird
 
....maybe
Wouldn't it be FGOTUS?
ttf_BGuttman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_BGuttman » Wed Apr 06, 2016 4:03 pm

Quote from: Baron von Bone on Apr 06, 2016, 03:56PM
Wouldn't it be FGOTUS?

MFOTUS (if you are anti-Clinton)? Image Image
ttf_Dan Hine
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Dan Hine » Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:25 pm

Quote from: B0B on Apr 06, 2016, 02:11PMWho are on enough ballots in enough states to win? Doubtful.

Both the Libertarian and Green parties are on enough ballots to mathematically win the election.  That is why there is currently a lawsuit against the Commission on Presidential Debates for their nominees to be included.

In fact, this year, the Libertarian party will be on the ballot in all 50 states.


ttf_bonearzt
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_bonearzt » Wed Apr 06, 2016 6:35 pm

Quote from: BGuttman on Apr 06, 2016, 04:03PMMFOTUS (if you are anti-Clinton)? Image Image

LOVE IT!@!!!!!

Maybe FWOTUS?    First Willie......?  hehehe



Eric
ttf_Exzaclee
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Exzaclee » Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:53 pm

the masculine of lady is lord, not gentleman.
ttf_watermailonman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_watermailonman » Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:25 pm

Hi, I did not vote and don't want to make this too political.... but I fear Trump + Putin = Nuclear combo.

/Tom
ttf_BGuttman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_BGuttman » Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:13 am

Quote from: Exzaclee on Apr 06, 2016, 09:53PMthe masculine of lady is lord, not gentleman.

Yeah, but when they asked Bill what he'd be, he said "first gentleman".  Wonder if they still have to play the little song for him? Image
ttf_Baron von Bone
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Baron von Bone » Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:57 am

Quote from: Exzaclee on Apr 06, 2016, 09:53PMthe masculine of lady is lord, not gentleman.
When it's used as a personal title of nobility (prefix), yeah.
 
The title of the position is First Lady, not Lady Michelle or Lady Laura ... etc.
ttf_Eastcheap
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Eastcheap » Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:35 am

Quote from: Baron von Bone on Apr 07, 2016, 03:57AMWhen it's used as a personal title of nobility (prefix), yeah.

Lord and lady mean housemaster and housemistress (lit. bread-keeper and bread-kneader) respectively so, strictly speaking, Exzaclee is correct.

Whether or not Bill could accurately be described as a "housemaster" I'll leave to others to argue. Image
ttf_robcat2075
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_robcat2075 » Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:54 am

Quote from: Exzaclee on Apr 06, 2016, 09:53PMthe masculine of lady is lord, not gentleman.

Which is why it is so common to address an audience with, "Good evening, ladies and lords..."  Image
ttf_Exzaclee
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Exzaclee » Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:59 am

that's how i do it, if i'm not introducing the band in spanish.
ttf_Eastcheap
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Eastcheap » Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:52 am

Quote from: robcat2075 on Apr 07, 2016, 06:54AMWhich is why it is so common to address an audience with, "Good evening, ladies and lords..."  Image

"Lords, ladies, and gentlemen" was once quite common.

One can be a gentleman without being a lord in any sense, and the courtesy is traditionally extended to all women (well, all gentlewomen).
ttf_anonymous
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_anonymous » Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:54 am

Hillary will be the Dem candidate.
Trump will be the Rep candidate.
Both parties, have equally failed the people of the USA.
Both parties should be banned, or disbanded.
They no longer represent "the people's" best interest.

Trump will win.
No, I did not vote for Trump in the primary.
But he will win.
The people are tired of the "Establishment" in DC, and are sending a clear signal.
Even I can recognize that.

T.
ttf_Bruce the budgie
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Bruce the budgie » Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:27 am

Quote from: Exzaclee on Apr 07, 2016, 06:59AM...introducing the band in spanish.

which I assume goes something like "dames and cavalrymen", yes?
ttf_timothy42b
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_timothy42b » Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:52 am

Quote from: tsmart on Apr 07, 2016, 07:54AM
The people are tired of the "Establishment" in DC, and are sending a clear signal.
Even I can recognize that.

T.

The people?

I think not.

This is a classic case of a small culture being sure everyone else agrees with them.  The extremists supporting Trump are just that, extremists.  They carry undue weight in primaries because nobody cares about primaries.  There is no way they represent "the people." 
ttf_patrickosmith
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_patrickosmith » Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:59 am

Quote from: timothy42b on Apr 07, 2016, 08:52AMThe people?

I think not.

This is a classic case of a small culture being sure everyone else agrees with them.  The extremists supporting Trump are just that, extremists.  They carry undue weight in primaries because nobody cares about primaries.  There is no way they represent "the people." 

I know real people who would like to vote for Trump so that the establishment Republicans will *lose their jobs*. In their mind, Trump will lose and his negative coat tails would bring more down with him. So, as with game theory, you don't always vote for the person you want to win but with your ultimate objective: to have politicians lose their jobs. "You're fired."
ttf_Baron von Bone
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Baron von Bone » Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:39 am

Quote from: timothy42b on Apr 07, 2016, 08:52AMThe people?
 
I think not.
 
This is a classic case of a small culture being sure everyone else agrees with them.  The extremists supporting Trump are just that, extremists.  They carry undue weight in primaries because nobody cares about primaries.  There is no way they represent "the people."
When I first saw this poll I thought it would be interesting to add two more questions:
 
My choice is the candidate I support.
My choice is not the candidate I support.
ttf_BGuttman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_BGuttman » Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:03 am

Lots of times the choice is between the "lesser of two weevils".

Nobody is a perfect candidate for everybody.  What is it Lincoln said?  "You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time".
ttf_anonymous
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_anonymous » Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:07 am

Quote from: BGuttman on Apr 07, 2016, 10:03AM[s]Lots[/s] Most of times the choice is between the "lesser of two weevils".


Fixed it for ya
ttf_anonymous
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_anonymous » Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:10 am

Quote from: timothy42b on Apr 07, 2016, 08:52AMThe people?

I think not.

This is a classic case of a small culture being sure everyone else agrees with them.  The extremists supporting Trump are just that, extremists.  They carry undue weight in primaries because nobody cares about primaries.  There is no way they represent "the people." 

Hold that thought.

Get back to me after the election....
ttf_robcat2075
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_robcat2075 » Thu Apr 07, 2016 11:00 am

Quote from: BGuttman on Apr 07, 2016, 10:03AMWhat is it Lincoln said?  "You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time..."

Between just those two options you can get away with a lot.   Image
ttf_ddickerson
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_ddickerson » Fri Apr 08, 2016 5:37 am

That sounds more like a Barnum and Bailey quote.  Image
ttf_robcat2075
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_robcat2075 » Fri Apr 08, 2016 6:54 am

I've read that the "You can fool..." quote can't be clearly linked to Lincoln and that it only surfaced 50 years later as a recollection by someone who had heard him speak.

However, a version of that saying appears in French a couple hundred years earlier. 
ttf_BGuttman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_BGuttman » Fri Apr 08, 2016 9:22 am

Barnum said "There's a sucker born every minute".

I would totally believe that Lincoln had read of the earlier version and just found it fit what he was trying to get across.  I'd also believe that he didn't say it.  But it's a great saw anyway.
ttf_wgwbassbone
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_wgwbassbone » Fri Apr 08, 2016 9:41 am

I'd rather wait until there are actually 2 candidates to choose from.
ttf_BGuttman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_BGuttman » Fri Apr 08, 2016 9:44 am

Quote from: wgwbassbone on Apr 08, 2016, 09:41AMI'd rather wait until there are actually 2 candidates to choose from.

You may be waiting until 2020.  This year there may be three. Image
ttf_djdekok
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_djdekok » Sun May 15, 2016 8:10 am

Well, the question was, "what candidate do you THINK...".
I am NOT voting for Hillary Rodham Peron in November, but that's who I think will win.
That woman is in DESPERATE need of lessons in elocution.  Her voice when she gets strident goes WAY beyond fingernails on the chalkboard and strangled cats. I change the station when I hear her campaign rants on TV or radio. If she happens to be on NPR, I change it faster than I do when it's pledge week.

ttf_BGuttman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_BGuttman » Sun May 15, 2016 8:44 am

Quote from: djdekok on May 15, 2016, 08:10AMWell, the question was, "what candidate do you THINK...".
I am NOT voting for Hillary Rodham Peron in November, but that's who I think will win.
That woman is in DESPERATE need of lessons in elocution.  Her voice when she gets strident goes WAY beyond fingernails on the chalkboard and strangled cats. I change the station when I hear her campaign rants on TV or radio. If she happens to be on NPR, I change it faster than I do when it's pledge week.


So you prefer BS Artist Trump? Image
ttf_Ellrod
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_Ellrod » Sun May 15, 2016 9:25 am

 Our friend caught Donald's show when he was in Lynden Washington last weekend. The thing that stood out for him was that Don is no spring chicken. In fact, he is 70 years of age. And, according to my friend, the grind  of the campaign was showing.
ttf_MoominDave
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_MoominDave » Sun May 15, 2016 9:42 am

Hypothetical: If a candidate becomes medically unable to stand after they have collected sufficient delegates to see the other candidates off, what happens? Do they perhaps recount the delegates from all the districts with the votes for that candidate removed?
ttf_BGuttman
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What candidate do you think will be our next president?

Post by ttf_BGuttman » Sun May 15, 2016 9:45 am

If a candidate becomes unable to continue before the convention, the convention is at liberty to choose anybody else.

If a candidate dies during the election period, the election continues and the vice-presidential candidate is the presidential candidate.  If the president-elect dies before he can take office, the vice-president-elect is sworn in.

We have a rather old crew of candidates and I think more than at any time in history any of these is likely.

Incidentally, if Hillary is indicted of any serious crime, she becomes ineligible.  Same for the Donald.
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