Coronavirus

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BGuttman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman »

timothy42b wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 2:39 pm ...

This is not academic for me. My wife left work yesterday with fever and chills. We are hoping that it is some other illness of course, hoping for the best.
Well, if she does have it and it's not too severe we now have Rendesivir, which can shorten her recovery from 15 days to 11.

Good luck to you both!
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JohnL
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by JohnL »

timothy42b wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 2:39 pmThis is not academic for me. My wife left work yesterday with fever and chills. We are hoping that it is some other illness of course, hoping for the best.
Mine was something else. Symptoms really didn't align with Covid-19, but I had been around quite a few people as part of my job, so I got tested out of an abundance of caution. Results were negative.

If it's any comfort, a lot of the people who develop flu-like symptoms have just that - the flu (not that the flu is entirely trivial).
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DougHulme
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by DougHulme »

JohnL - If it's any comfort, a lot of the people who develop flu-like symptoms have just that - the flu (not that the flu is entirely trivial).
... Quite right its not trivial - 14,000 people died in the UK last year of 'ordinary' flu not that less than the coronovirus tally so far.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Posaunus »

I'm willing to speculate that cases of "ordinary" flu are way down from normal this spring because of the social distancing and sanitary practices most of us have been observing since March. Though the viruses are different than Covid-19, they are transmitted in much the same way. Because of that (and the flu vaccine that I received last fall), I feel as if I'm in pretty good shape. [I've had a bad case of "ordinary flu" before – almost killed me!]
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by timothy42b »

We had the test, but the medical folks are skeptical it's covid. We'll get results in a couple of days. This test did not go through the nostril, it was just a swab at the back of throat. Not the scary thing we were expecting.
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StevenC
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by StevenC »

Yeah well the medical folks kept telling my father he didn't need a test; it wasn't covid. Well he lives with my infirm mother; he really should know, and yes it was positive.
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Re: Coronavirus

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ArbanRubank
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArbanRubank »

Cool! Great way to start the day! After listening, I marched in step from my office, down to my music studio for a practice session. Thanks for posting!

For those on FB who either double or otherwise appreciate euphonium & tuba, maybe give this a listen:

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ArbanRubank
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArbanRubank »

I found that amazing Euphonium/Tuba duet on YouTube:



You have to hear it to believe it!

Although not a new technique, I assume they filmed it this way specifically to observe social distancing.
Sarah
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Sarah »

BflatBass wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:36 pm I'm seeing news about reports that say the risk of death is 0.03% from the coronavirus which is lower than the seasonal flu (0.06%). The argument is that the "lockdown" is overkill and needs to be relaxed. Personally I'm afraid that we will be returning to "normal" too soon. But also I think that if the powers that be relax the lockdown they should target it to a certain extent. This would be difficult of course. Maybe protect those most at risk to a very high degree but everyone else is allowed to return to work so to speak. This is really complicated but maybe it could be a guideline for relaxing our isolation. Idk, just a thought. When South Korea dealt with this pandemic they didn't need to shut everything down. They were smart about their testing and were able to isolate high risk people and areas early. They were so effective about it they got things under control very quickly.
We're way past that point here in the US of course. Idk, maybe because we didn't get a jump on this situation early enough we now have to deal with it in a "universal" way in that everyone is affected even if they shouldn't or don't need to be.

I'm hoping that one of the after effects of this pandemic will be that wearing a mask will be much more common place out in public.
The worst about the Covid for me is the isolation! Is it getting to you too?
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Bloo
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bloo »

Covid isolated me from my jazz band, aka my only friends.

I was playing at a jazz competition and my soloing was going to be judged by Wycliffe Gordon, until it all got cancelled.
So much for senior year huh?

I have been spending a lot more time focusing on technical improvement now at least. I'm focusing on getting a good mic sound with the bone so I can record multitracks.
I'm partial to vintage Conn horns, and new Getzens.
baileyman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by baileyman »

Resurrecting this thread to recommend this guy

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam

who seems to be doing an amazing job projecting variant growth in the USA, the UK variant. The basic problem is that the original strain is being out-competed by the UK variant and is subsiding, but the variant is in exponential takeoff right now in many places, including Massachusetts, my home. This guy, I suppose, is curve fitting based on replication numbers, and the fits sure look good. I notice that Canadian government speech is quite emphatic about the dangers of the next few months, while USA government speech is rather less urgent. FYI.
Bach5G
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bach5G »

A couple of days ago, an epidemiologist mentioned a new NY variant that is outcompeting the UK in NY.
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DougHulme
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by DougHulme »

It might be worth noting at this point that with the exception of The South Afrcan variant all the new strains appear to be responding to the existing vaccines and gained immunity. We just need to keep churning out the vaccines as fast as we can. How much simpler would it be (if we had enough vaccines) to inject instead of testing.
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ArbanRubank
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArbanRubank »

This is purely FYI, but I believe it is not strictly p/c to refer to the Coronavirus varients as "UK" or "African" - same as it is not p/c to refer to the Coronavirus as "Chinese". Just saying...
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bach5G »

Point taken but no one is trying to whip up public feeling against the UK and SA.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman »

There has been some interesting studies using Ivermectin. I don't think it's as bogus as Hydroxycloroquine, but there should be a full evaluation. A full treatment would cost on the order of $6.00 and it seems to be effective as a prophylaxis (preventative) AND a cure. May be a good choice for the Third World where cost of treatment is an issue.
This is purely FYI, but I believe it is not strictly p/c to refer to the Coronavirus variants as "UK" or "African" - same as it is not p/c to refer to the Coronavirus as "Chinese". Just saying...
The variants have been traced to these locations. Newest one appears to have come from New York. Covid 19 appears to have emanated from Wuhan in China. However, calling it Kung Flu or Chinko Virus is definitely NOT PC.

Side note: the "Spanish Flu" of a century ago actually emanated from the US -- in Kansas.
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ArbanRubank
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArbanRubank »

Anyway, I hope performance groups can make a come-back. It remains to be seen what the new long-term normal will be. I personally can't see myself ever wanting to sit in a crowded concert hall again.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by imsevimse »

No concerts yet this year, no rehearsals yet. Truth is I would decline until I get my vaccine anyway. I happen to work at the "Swedish national defence for disease Control". This pandemic is not over. Not in Sweden.

/Tom
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ArbanRubank
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArbanRubank »

Bach5G wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:21 pm Point taken but no one is trying to whip up public feeling against the UK and SA.
True. However, that should not be the only criteria. Correctness should prevail under any circumstances, lest we look back someday with regrets. :clever:
baileyman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by baileyman »

ArbanRubank wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:17 pm This is purely FYI, but I believe it is not strictly p/c to refer to the Coronavirus varients as "UK" or "African" - same as it is not p/c to refer to the Coronavirus as "Chinese". Just saying...
There is a kind of pseudo sensitivity that shows up here. A great example is the moralizing we suffer regarding copyright, a bludgeon directed against working magicians, in general. And this is another. The blunt truth, available to anyone willing to put in some time listening to pro epidemiologists speak, is that the labels applied here are commonly applied there, by them, in their fora. No one will hear "bee dot one dot one dot seven", the only "correct" name, but will hear "bee one one seven" and "UK variant" interchangeably.

So put the one to bed, please.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by imsevimse »

ArbanRubank wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:17 pm This is purely FYI, but I believe it is not strictly p/c to refer to the Coronavirus varients as "UK" or "African" - same as it is not p/c to refer to the Coronavirus as "Chinese". Just saying...
New diseases has been named by their origin before in history at least in our country and I guess the disease will be commonly known by locally different names all over the world depending on how to look at it.

If it is used to "blame" it is not politically correct. The mutations arise and spread from a particular region and steps then need to be taken to prevent the mutation to pass the border. If we name the mutation i"xyz" and do not allow people from a certain country to pass the border because the "xyz"i is spread there does not help much. It is obvious were the "xyz" comes from anyway. The mutations get scientific names too and in time noone will remember all mutations. Where Corona first made it to a human will be what too look for and the cause for what made that jump possible is what we must lern better to prevent. The more a virus is spread the more mutations will arise. When all the world has been vaccinated and the pandemic is over then there will be less of new mutations. Let's hope new mutations becomes less deadly.

/Tom
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DougHulme
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by DougHulme »

To be fair (and I dont mind personally what we call them) The label attached is usually where they were first discovered or labelled not necessarily where they actually mutated. We are fairly sure for instance that the UK one did not mutate in the UK its just that we have a more sophisticated and devloped sytem of analysing than most other countries in the world so we identified it first and it got to be called UK variant. Therefore its not unreasonable to think that its quite possible all the other variants may possibly have happened somewhere else but its handy to name them where they are discovered and we then all know what we are talking about. I'm inclined to believe the 'Spanish' flue (which as Bruce pointed out actually came from the States) probably (or at least could have) had dozens of variations but we didnt have the technology or basic knowledge to know mutations were happening and just treated it as one huge pandemic of the same variety. As far as political correctness and our response to the virus goes, I think we are all in this together wherever we come from its world wide and the psychology should be one of unity. It shouldnt make any difference or stir any feelings of nationalism whatever the variants are called and by enlarge I dont think it has. Maybe with the exception of the 'slang' terms that Bruce outlined! (neither of which I had heard in the sheltered shores of the UK)!

Tom... youve got to do better - I need to get to Sweden ASAP in order to get to my cabin in Finland!! :)

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ArbanRubank
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArbanRubank »

We are all accountable for our own words and deeds. I have chosen to take the super high way in public. Others may snicker or roll their eyes, but I will not - technically - be wrong. Labeling the variants by way of their presumed country of origin may seem okay right now to many, but in time, come to be deemed wrong - as everything in society lately gets constantly re-evaluated and re-judged.
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BGuttman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman »

When the disease was first identified it was given a name by WHO (I think) of "COrona VIrus Disease 19" shortened to COVID 19. The number was because it first appeared in 2019, not because it was the 19th in a sequence. The name seems to have been accepted, rather than place names like Ebola or generic Flu names like H1N2.

I cringed whenever our former President called it "Kung Flu". "Wuhan Flu" was less cringe-worthy but not accurate since it's much more deadly than a normal flu.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 »

BGuttman wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:02 am I cringed whenever our former President
Pretty much that for four years.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArbanRubank »

I don't see anything wrong with making up a name that is easily spelled, pronounced and remembered, or otherwise shortened from a more scientific name. I personally don't like to see everyday terms getting hijacked, however. Nor do I care for names that denigrate people (either singularly or in groups) - even if there is no intent to denigrate, nor naming after animals. Animals are abused enough - so no "Swine Flu" for me, thank you.

Atlantic hurricanes are named from a set list of male/female names. But that can be tricky as well. Should we call the B.1.1.7 variant the Oliver Variant, since Oliver has been a popular UK name since about 2013? Probably not. Is it too onerous a task to call it B.1.1.7? Nobody hears the dots when it's spoken, unless the dots are articulated sarcastically. See what I did there - used the word articulation on a brass forum. Oh well, it wasn't that good <sigh>.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 »

We are at an awkward stage where our general population is no longer hungering to assign blame with a name like "the Hong Kong Flu" but still too science-shy to feel comfortable with neutral but jargony names like COVID-19.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 »

I got my first dose of (Moderna) vaccine today. Now I wait for the side effects.

I'm hoping for a bad reaction so I'll know i didn't get a placebo.
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ArbanRubank
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArbanRubank »

That kinda was my reaction to the process as well. I wanted to get somewhat - but not too - sick. Then I knew it was working as intended.
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BGuttman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman »

robcat2075 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:57 pm I got my first dose of (Moderna) vaccine today. Now I wait for the side effects.

I'm hoping for a bad reaction so I'll know i didn't get a placebo.
Nobody gets placebos unless you signed up for the test. Regular Vax centers only give the real thing. One of three -- Astra/Zenica has not been approved in the US.
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Cotboneman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Cotboneman »

My community orchestra rehearses in a church, but large gatherings have been banned by the City of Tucson since last year. We did meet in sections recently to virtually record the premier of a new work commissioned by the orchestra, but we've been told that it will be at least September before we will be able to meet for large group rehearsals. Given that some players have moved away, or have not been playing since last February, the planned programming of Mahler 1 and Shostakovich 5 for the fall and winter concerts have been postponed till possibly the 2022-23 season. Since all members of my trombone trio and quartet are vaccinated and quarantined, we can still practice weekly, if only for garage concerts. No paid gigs though, but hey, I'm retired.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Grah »

In Queensland, Australia, up until now, our restrictions due to Coronavirus have not been too bad. With the Redland City Big Band, we have been able to practice in our band hall. But with the chairs spaced at 1.5 metres, which makes it a bit difficult to get a section feel. But it is better than no band practicing at all.

My Traditional Jazz band, the Swing Time Stompers, has been able to to do gigs at our club, with a seated but social distancing audience, since December.

But three days ago, our Premier reintroduced another full Lock Down; and everything, including practices, had to be cancelled. This morning she has lifted the Lock Down but some of the rules still apply. Dancing is not allowed, which is a pain because we had two dance gigs on the books. Also, one has to wear face masks indoors - other than home. We will have to get a ruling from the Local Council on practices in our RCB band hall, because they own the hall.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-01/ ... /100035948
Grah

(Transcribing jazz solos is fraught with difficulties because exact rhythmic notation is well-nigh impossible. So listen carefully because it's the only way to learn how to play jazz trombone so that we can return to the Golden Age.) 8-)
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 »

The needle must be the smallest of any vaccination I've ever gotten. I wasn't sure it had even happened.

Usually, I'm very aware that someone has stuck a needle in me.
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BGuttman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman »

robcat2075 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:47 pm The needle must be the smallest of any vaccination I've ever gotten. I wasn't sure it had even happened.

Usually, I'm very aware that someone has stuck a needle in me.
You must never have had to take an insulin injection for diabetes. Those needles are comparably small.
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Bach5G
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bach5G »

Apparently I qualify to get the AZ but I’m a little leery, having had an unexplained allergic reaction to a hep C immunization a few years ago. I’m 65, turning 66 in a month and a half. AZ is not currently approved for people 66 and up.
Last edited by Bach5G on Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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BGuttman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman »

Bach5G wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:12 pm Apparently I qualify to get the AZ but I’m a little leery, having had an unexplained allergic reaction to a hep C immunization a few years ago. I’m 65.
I'd probably be a good candidate for the AZ since I'm on blood thinners (Warfarin/Coumedin) so probably not as susceptible to the clots.

But I'm already on the Pfizer track. Good news: the latest tests indicate it's good for my 12 year old mind in addition to my 70+ year old body ;)
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Splendour
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Splendour »

It's hard to find any coherent data online, but when the EU first suspended AZ jabs there had been less then 20 incidents, 8 deaths recorded from more then half a million injections.
Compared to the rate of survival of infection without inoculation during the same period (thousands of deaths from half a million infections), the AZ jab is a risk I'd be willing to take, but then I've always liked cold calculations. Statistical risk analysis is a whole lot messier when it involves your own survival...
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by spencercarran »

Splendour wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:16 am It's hard to find any coherent data online, but when the EU first suspended AZ jabs there had been less then 20 incidents, 8 deaths recorded from more then half a million injections.
Compared to the rate of survival of infection without inoculation during the same period (thousands of deaths from half a million infections), the AZ jab is a risk I'd be willing to take, but then I've always liked cold calculations. Statistical risk analysis is a whole lot messier when it involves your own survival...
Safety standards for vaccines are stricter than for other medical interventions because you administer vaccines to currently healthy people, many of whom might never encounter infection even without the vaccine. So the denominators being used by regulators are a bit different from what your calculation here shows (ie it's not the risks from vaccine vs the risks from infection, it's risk from vaccine vs risk that an unvaccinated person will actually contract infection and then go on to have a bad case).
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robcat2075
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 »

After getting the vaccine yesterday I get my trombone out today and...
  • I can't play in tune
  • I can't make it to the end of a phrase
  • My arm gets tired after holding the horn up for ten minutes

So, just as it was before. No vaccine side effects!


BGuttman wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:55 pm
robcat2075 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:47 pm The needle must be the smallest of any vaccination I've ever gotten. I wasn't sure it had even happened.
You must never have had to take an insulin injection for diabetes. Those needles are comparably small.

I will admit I have not had that pleasure. Yet another old-age perk I am missing out on. Where do I sign up?
>>Robert Holmén<<

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by PaulT »

BGuttman wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:22 pm ...
Side note: the "Spanish Flu" of a century ago actually emanated from the US -- in Kansas.

Brief correction. There is no "actually" concerning the origin point of the "Spanish Flu".

The origin of the "Spanish Flu" is not known, (ie, is not agreed upon) and will likely never be known. There are competing hypothesis concerning the origin of this flu. Kansas as the origin is one of them, and while it does enjoy an irony factor that lends it a certain appeal (and suspicion?), it is just one of several "theories" and enjoys no scientific advantage over its competitors. There are just too many layers of dust to deal with.

While there is enough scattered and partial evidence available to keep the argument over the origin point of the "Spanish Flu" going for as long as there are those willing to pursue it, there will in overwhelming probability never be enough of the type of evidence necessary to settle it.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by CalgaryTbone »

Bach5G wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:12 pm Apparently I qualify to get the AZ but I’m a little leery, having had an unexplained allergic reaction to a hep C immunization a few years ago. I’m 65, turning 66 in a month and a half. AZ is not currently approved for people 66 and up.
I had the AstaZeneca (1st shot) in mid-March - currently waiting for 2nd shot, for which Canada has decided to stretch out the wait in order to get more 1st shots in arms. I'm not a doctor, and I know that the info changes as more studies are done, but all the reading I've done says that the only reason that over 65's aren't part of the recommended group is that they weren't well represented in the initial trials. Lots of over-65's have had AZ shots in various countries without any issues. Likewise, the blood clot info is also not at a huge red flag. There were less than 40 cases out of more than 17 million people vaccinated with AZ worldwide - a much smaller number than what would be expected to have that problem naturally out of a sampling that large. I'm glad that various governments are having their health authorities look into the issue as an abundance of caution, but am not worried personally.

Jim Scott
PaulT
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by PaulT »

Splendour wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:16 am It's hard to find any coherent data online, but when the EU first suspended AZ jabs there had been less then 20 incidents, 8 deaths recorded from more then half a million injections.
Compared to the rate of survival of infection without inoculation during the same period (thousands of deaths from half a million infections), the AZ jab is a risk I'd be willing to take, but then I've always liked cold calculations. Statistical risk analysis is a whole lot messier when it involves your own survival...
I was just listening to an NPR segment on the AZ issue. The concern is the occurrence of a very, very rare medical condition that has led to the formation of blood clots in the brains in some patients who had recently received the AZ vaccine . So far, the very few so afflicted have been predominantly young and female.

The interviewer asked the guest epidemiologist, [paraphrased] "but these medical occurrences are so very, very rare, how can they possibly offset the benefit of the vaccine and how can anyone issue a recommendation to not administer the AZ vaccine?"

The epidemiologist replied [paraphrased]:

"It isn't a simple issue making a blanket recommendation one way or another as the risk of Covid to various segments of the population does not fit under a single blanket . In the case of the young adults, primarily females, who "may" be at risk, however slight, from the AZ vaccine if current numbers hold, the question becomes, "'how does that AZ vaccine brain clot risk compare to their risk from Covid?" Brain clots, however very rare, are often fatal. Against that, the fatality risk of Covid to young healthy adults is effectively zero.

If the person in question were elderly, overweight, diabetic, or suffering from any medical condition that might be an issue, there is no question, the risk from Covid is great and by comparison the risk from the AZ vaccine is non-existent.

But, at the other end, if we are discussing the options facing a healthy young female, the math involved in the decision changes. Does the question of whether or not to take the AZ vaccine then also change? I don't have an answer to that. Not at the present."
Last edited by PaulT on Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by PaulT »

Oh, and the fellow being interviewed said that within the age group of those who were afflicted with brain clots after receiving the AZ vaccine, the medical condition that led to the brain clots occurred at frequency eight times greater than would have been expected within that age grouping based on past history.

Important caveats:

This was one epidemiologist on one NPR show. He was not "waving the Red Flag".

The portion I paraphrased was a response to the interviewer's leading question which I read as being dismissive of the issue. While the fellow was not waving the Red Flag, he was also definitely not being dismissive. He said the medical concerns with the AZ vaccine were being taken very seriously and he raised the possibility that there may not be a "one size fits all" answer to these concerns.

And the fellow was clear that while 8 times very, very, very, little is still very, very, very, little, it does raise the question, "Why? And is this a concern or not?"
Bach5G
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bach5G »

From today’s Guardian:

The World Health Organization has also backed the vaccine, while AstraZeneca has previously said that 17 million people in the EU and UK have received the vaccine and the number of cases of blood clots reported “is lower than the hundreds of cases that would be expected among the general population”.
PaulT
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by PaulT »

Oh, and IF any of the possible IFs the fellow raised as possible IFs possibly apply, the most reasonable conclusion, pending the development any further and future IFs, is not to avoid Covid vaccines but to perhaps recommend that a certain segments of the population receive one other than AZ's. Possibly and Perhaps.

All IFs pending and under current and proper scrutiny.
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BGuttman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman »

Note that the supply of vaccine in Europe is primarily AZ. Pfizer is a close second.

I believe the AZ vaccine has less stringent storage requirements -- more on the order of Johnson and Johnson.
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Bach5G
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bach5G »

Speaking of J&J:

“The company at the centre of quality problems that led Johnson & Johnson to discard 15 million doses of its coronavirus vaccine has a string of citations from U.S. health officials for quality control problems.
Emergent BioSolutions, a little-known company vital to the vaccine supply chain, was a key to Johnson & Johnson's plan to deliver 100 million doses of its single-shot vaccine to the United States by the end of May. But the Food and Drug Administration repeatedly has cited Emergent for problems such as poorly trained employees, cracked vials and problems managing mould and other contamination around one of its facilities, according to records obtained by The Associated Press through the Freedom of Information Act. The records cover inspections at Emergent facilities since 2017.”
CalgaryTbone
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by CalgaryTbone »

BGuttman wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:55 pm Note that the supply of vaccine in Europe is primarily AZ. Pfizer is a close second.

I believe the AZ vaccine has less stringent storage requirements -- more on the order of Johnson and Johnson.
Yes - AZ can be stored in conventional freezers - doesn't need special storage equipment.

JS
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robcat2075
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 »

Bach5G wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:29 pm ... problems such as poorly trained employees, cracked vials and problems managing mould and other contamination
That's like the Whataburger I used to work at.
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