brassmedic wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 12:44 pm
... The rate of Bell's Palsy occurring after vaccinations is still commensurate with the rate in the general population. If you "haven't had the time" to find this out, perhaps you should
make the time. A lot of people here have explained it politely and rationally, and you have petulantly dismissed every single one of them.
Very well then. Keep in mind this analysis relies on a small sample of data (36,901 subjects) for a relatively rare outcome and a number of simplifying assumptions. And I am having a relaxing non-working day if you gather my meaning. So please do check the numbers. I know I will be checking it later.
Without further ado ...
Question:
What is the *relatively likelihood* of contracting Bell's Palsy for these two conditions:
(Condition A) "after receiving the (Pfizer/Moderna) mRNA injections"
(Condition B) "not receiving the mRNA injections at all."
Answer:
575
You are 575 times more likely to contract Bell's Palsy after receiving these mRNA injections than had you not been injected at all.
So what!? It's a rare thing right? That is true. You probably won't get it anyway since it is so rare. But, still, you are 575 times more likely to get it within a few months of your last injection.
Please feel free to point out any errors, omissions, mistakes, caveats or spin you care to make. I would love it if any of you can find a stupid math mistake, error in reasoning or whatever.
From Wilktone and
http://www.neurocntr.com/bells-palsy.php we have 40,000 outcomes per 332,000,000 persons per year. That's an occurrence rate of 0.000120481 per person per year for (Condition B).
From the data provided in the subject report we have 7 outcomes per 36,901 in an average period of 25 days after receiving their last injection (specifically days 3, 9, 22, 28, 32, 37, 48). That's an occurrence rate of 0.000189696 per person per 25 days. (For the sake of the remainder in this group I hope this short-term rate reduces dramatically). Anyway, this translates to an occurrence rate of 0.069239316 per person per year for (Condition A).
The ratio of condition (A) to condition (B) is 575.