And so it starts

[musicofnote]

A FB posting from yesterday, popped on my feed again today:

"Wedge Mouthpieces
Yesterday at 05:19 ·

To all my customers in the United States, as you might or might not be aware, we are a Canadian company. As a result, according to news reports today, our mouthpieces will likely be subject to a 25% tariff as soon as the new administration assumes power a few months from now.

This will have a devastating effect on our company. We are a small business with a profit margin of well below 25%. As a result the burden of paying these tariffs will fall on our US customers. We cannot absorb them. Depending on how the tariffs are applied you could either be required to pay an import tax of 25%, similar to when we ship mouthpieces to Europe, or we will be required to pay it, in which case our prices will increase by 25% for US customers.

These tariffs are of course designed to prevent the movement of goods into the US from Canada. They will probably be quite effective.

So if you have been considering the purchase of a Wedge mouthpiece this is probably the time to do it, before the cost to US customers goes up by 25% or before we stop shipping to the US entirely.
In preparation for these developments we will be changing our marketing strategy to concentrate on markets outside the US. This is necessary if we are to survive as a company. So on a positive note you might be subjected to fewer Wedge ads.

It is of course possible that these tariffs will not be implemented. However I wanted to make sure that our many repeat customers and new customers were not caught off guard by a 25% increase in prices or by the inability to purchase a Wedge mouthpiece at any price in the US.

Sincerely,
Dr Dave"

[EriKon]

"Every nation has the government it deserves"
Joseph de Maistre

[imsevimse]

Maybe we will see a few Wedge mouthpieces over here (Sweden) in the few shops we have left if the company needs a new market. We do pay a few % in customs (think 3%) already, but we have another tax of 25% (moms) we pay on everything we buy even things made in Sweden. We have those insane high prices here on everything we buy plus we have to pay for shipping if we import.

/Tom

[Matt K]

I moved a few topics, reminder to keep it civil. There was some charged language that was certainly approaching personal attacks at others here.

Just like with Covid, totally okay to talk about it as it directly pertains to music. What we want to avoid is "You are a [bad person, idiot, evil] if you [do / do not] support [topic tangentially relevant to music]."

While it's unfortunate that the obvious effect will be an immediate, direct cost to US consumers... demand for mouthpieces just seems so flexible. Especially for trumpet mouthpieces, which I'm assuming is Wedge's primary market. Unlike WW instruments we don't have to buy them more than once unless we really want to. This would push the existing price at $240 to ~$300 but that's still almost $100 less than a Monette Prana.

Also to note... US -> CAN is about $1.40 right now, so it's very favorable for Canadian exporters. Getting almost 50% lift on purchasing power by exporting is a great deal. It doesn't help with raw materials but I'm assuming a fairly large amount of mouthpiece manufacturing is the labor. I may be totally off base about that though.

[Bach5G]

“Also to note... US -> CAN is about $1.40 right now, so it's very favorable for Canadian exporters. Getting almost 50% lift on purchasing power by exporting is a great deal. It doesn't help with raw materials but I'm assuming a fairly large amount of mouthpiece manufacturing is the labor. I may be totally off base about that though.”

Sounds good unless you’re a Canadian buying that Monette mpc which will cost about $640 in Canadian dollars.But that’s not Trump’s constituency.

What is interesting to me is that many items in the grocery store are approximately the same cost or more in the US than in Canada before exchange is taken into account. For example, I paid $5.80 for a latte in Bellingham a few months ago, at face value a little more than the $5 I’d pay at my fave coffee shop. But, after exchange, that US latte cost me about $8.00 CDN. More expensive than in Vienna and Berlin too. Another example: a block of cheese was about $15 US in Point Roberts WA, about the same that we’d pay in Canadian dollars at the local grocery store (and dairy products tend to be less expensive in the US). After exchange, that block of cheese would cost about $21 in Canadian dollars. I am a little more sympathetic to ordinary Americans complaining about inflation and the cost of living than I was. Something seems seriously out of whack. I doubt Trump and Peter Navarro are the answer, but we’ll see.

[Matt K]

Sounds good unless you’re a Canadian buying that Monette mpc which will cost about $640 in Canadian dollars.But that’s not Trump’s constituency.

RIght, not good for Canadian consumers, but favorable to Wedge.

As far as pricing of groceries, there are a lot of costs that go into having something on a shelf where you can access & purchase it. I use that language rather than to simply say "putting it on the shelf" because, as with mouthpieces, non-material costs are a sizable portion of the expense, including the cost to maintain the facilities and the labor for the people to keep the doors open (and obviously regulatory thigns like tariffs). So even with "unfavorable" exchange rates it's very possible to have goods more expensive than in places that have less "favorable" rates, especialy with high absolute wages (even if wages are lower in a relative sense).

[tbdana]

However, all things being equal, and with only one thing changing -- that being the potential imposition of a 25% tariff on mouthpieces or whatever -- the reality for American consumers is that prices will go up and availability will go down.

This also puts upward pressure on domestic prices, so the effect is no limited to Wedge and its customers.

[norbie2018]

However, all things being equal, and with only one thing changing -- that being the potential imposition of a 25% tariff on mouthpieces or whatever -- the reality for American consumers is that prices will go up and availability will go down.

This also puts upward pressure on domestic prices, so the effect is no limited to Wedge and its customers.

Unless a consumer buys items from the U.S. sourced from the U.S. Is that correct?

[Bach5G]

However, all things being equal, and with only one thing changing -- that being the potential imposition of a 25% tariff on mouthpieces or whatever -- the reality for American consumers is that prices will go up and availability will go down.

This also puts upward pressure on domestic prices, so the effect is no limited to Wedge and its customers.

Unless a consumer buys items from the U.S. sourced from the U.S. Is that correct?

Just as it is now. You’re free to buy that Prana from David Monette. But maybe he’s going to have to pay 100% more for that Chinese CNC mill?

[Matt K]

Unless a consumer buys items from the U.S. sourced from the U.S. Is that correct?

Sort of. I think what Dana is pointing out is that 1) raw materials sourced elsewhere will be somewhere in the ballpark of 25% more expensive, and 2) the supply curve is going to be artificially elevated, but nominally, the demand is going to remain the same. Something like this:

Screenshot 2024-12-05 at 3.38.38 PM.png

Source: economicsonline.co.uk

So, aside from raw materials costs being shifted around - or put another way: purely from a reduction in foreign supply, what could be seen is that prices of (at least some, but perhaps not all) domestic goods may increase beyond their equilibrium without a tariff.

I'm not convinced this is going to have such negative ramifications for Wedge as he's indicating, but that's pure armchair speculation. My occupation is reasonably shielded from tariffs and I'm also a US citizen, residing in the US.

I am wondering what this will mean for Shires, especially given what transpired in that other thread about how they are sourcing parts and whatnot that happened recently.

[Bach5G]

Does Shires pay a tariff on Chinese-manufactured parts now? And will that increase to 35% in January?

A slightly different perspective on this is that Trump has linked trade and tariffs to the issues of border security and drugs smuggled into the US, in particular opioids and fentanyl. Why these issues should impact the price of trombone mouthpieces is a good question.

[hyperbolica]

The tariffs are meant to bring mfg jobs back to the US, so anyone who imports or outsources is going to be the loser here. But its important to realize tbat the tariffs do not exist yet, and the president who proposed them is not yet in office. In some cases, threats of tariffs are just a way to get people to the negotiating table. It's not time to panic yet. For the Canadian suppliers, the postal strike is a bigger and more immediate concern.

[aasavickas]

To the moderator who removed my comment.

You are a censorious and bad at your job. To be clear, I’m not attacking you, I’m attacking your ability to do this job.

[aasavickas]

The original commenter insulted the majority of Americans and I pointed out that they also buy mouthpieces so insulting more than half your customers is a dumb policy.

His analysis is also naive and uninformed. But apparently, this can be discussed without shadow banning comments.

[BGuttman]

The original commenter insulted the majority of Americans and I pointed out that they also buy mouthpieces so insulting more than half your customers is a dumb policy.

His analysis is also naive and uninformed. But apparently, this can be discussed without shadow banning comments.

The original commenter was quoting a message received. Please don't be so thin-skinned. OP was not commenting on you.

Trump has threatened the tariff, but we won't see if he actually does it until after January 21, 2025. And there still can be legal challenges. It does violate a treaty that he promulgated.

Just sit back and watch for now.

[Bach5G]

..For the Canadian suppliers, the postal strike is a bigger and more immediate concern.

Thanks for letting us know what we ( ) should be concerned about.

[aasavickas]

I was clearly commenting on the points made because those points were premature, silly, wrong, and clearly bad for business. I never said the OP was commenting on me. Please read more carefully so that you don't get confused.

The moderators of this forum are biased thin skinned. Folks who have no idea about what they are talking about are free to say any nonsense on here so long as it agrees with one side.

If a person espouses incorrect beliefs on a forum, they should not be surprised when people point it out.

Reading compression is a lost art these days.

[Doug Elliott]

The Original Post made no comments at all... only a quote, and expressed no opinion of it.
So are we talking/complaning about that, or what followed?

[Bach5G]

There’s a lot of speculation about what the next administration might or might not do. Should we ramp up or batten down the hatches? Radical reforms or business as usual? Who knows?

I expect the outcome will be somewhere between rose-coloured glasses and setting one’s hair on fire.

I personally believe we ( ) are in for 4 years of tough sledding.

[Kingfan]

There’s a lot of speculation about what the next administration might or might not do. Should we ramp up or batten down the hatches? Radical reforms or business as usual? Who knows?

I expect the outcome will be somewhere between rose-coloured glasses and setting one’s hair on fire.

I personally believe we ( ) are in for 4 years of tough sledding.

I believe us neighbors to the south are in for tougher sledding. It'll be like riding a sled downhill over gravel and the sled is on fire, the gravel is on fire, and we are on fire. I hope I'm wrong.

[hornbuilder]

Trombone cases are also going to be more expensive. As far as I'm aware, no cases (other than Cronkite bags?) are made here anymore. Bonna is quoting a May delivery for cases ordered now, so they may well be rather pricey...

[CalgaryTbone]

Trombone cases are also going to be more expensive. As far as I'm aware, no cases (other than Cronkite bags?) are made here anymore. Bonna is quoting a May delivery for cases ordered now, so they may well be rather pricey...

The latest prices on the Bonna cases from a month or two ago already had quite a big price jump - if there's another on top of that soon, it will really be noticed by all!

Jim Scott

[hornbuilder]

I just received their new price list, effective January 1. Yes, there is an increase from the previous price list. Not huge, but an increase none the less. Then add the tariffs, if/when they come into effect.

[baileyman]

If what I wanted was a Wedge, where I would be unhappy playing something else, price wouldn't deter me.

[hornbuilder]

You're missing the point. A president is proposing increasing prices, via way of tariffs, on items simply because they come from overseas, even though there is no competitor product produced in the US. You're okay paying more?? For no reason?? Do you think Dr Dave is going to move to the US, just to satisfy this market? Is Bonna going to move their facility? This does not help anyone. It is bad business.

[Bach5G]

And today Trump is threatening to make Canada the 51st state using economic measures and, when asked directly, did not rule out military means.

[Doubler]

Donald Trump has been known to be sardonic, and one of his books is The Art of the Deal, and he has shown successful negotiating skills, so despair over tariffs which may not materialize may be premature. Throw in Justin Trudeau's resignation and a percentage of Canadians who wouldn't mind if Trump's playful dig about statehood was serious, and you've got a recipe for political entertainment.

[hyperbolica]

The tariffs are most likely to be targeted toward things that we can or should be able to produce in the US like steel, machinery, microelectronic chip foundries, etc. Last time around I ordered a Wessex for which I paid no tariff.

But then again, the Eastman/Shires deal is probably exactly the kind of thing Trump might specifically target because it was US business/tech which was transferred out of the country. At the very least I would expect him to limit US gov't (military music programs) to purchases of US made instruments, which will wind up being a benefit for some folks here in this discussion.

I'd be willing to bet that Trump is trying to reverse some specific trade negotiations that sent production of things like timber, grain, beef or seafood to Canada or elsewhere to make the US seem more "green" on paper. All of this big talk is just big talk and a distraction from what he really wants. He doesn't want Canada as a state, they would vote liberal for sure.

[Bach5G]

So, like a protection racket? Nice little country you’ve got here. I’d hate to see something happen to it. So you say we had a deal? The CUSMA? Well fuggedaboudit.

The effect of, for example, tariffs on Canadian-made steel will be higher prices to American steel consumers.

A friend, an American ex-pat, who came to Canada 40 years ago and currently works for a Canadian government agency while collecting his Canadian government pension (all perfectly legit), told me this morning that Canada should become a “protectorate” of the US. Who will protect us from the US?

Maybe we need to look at our own program of detentions and deportations.