TromboneChat

I was hearing that, worst case, it clears up through the summer and then rewards its head again in the coming winter. I guess it likes the cold

Please site your source, otherwise your only helping to spread misinformation. According to Michael Osterholm, epidemiologist from UMN, it can continue full throttle through the summer into the fall and winter, much unlike the cold.

harrisonreed wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:02 am I was hearing that, worst case, it clears up through the summer and then rewards its head again in the coming winter. I guess it likes the cold

If that were the case, why is it spreading in Malaysia, which is near the Equator; or in Australia, where it is currently summer going into fall?

norbie2018 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:43 am Please site your source, otherwise your only helping to spread misinformation. According to Michael Osterholm, epidemiologist from UMN, it can continue full throttle through the summer into the fall and winter, much unlike the cold.

That sounds even worse than what I heard, then.

Not proven by any means, but...

https://fullfact.org/health/could-coron ... r-weather/

Supports me saying what I heard. Guess I'm done posting in this thread. あばよ

The very first item on the link that you're reporting from answers the question will it continue during summer months as we don't know. But you stated it would diminish by the summer months, right?

If you're going to state facts about this thing state them accurately. Otherwise don't state them at all.

Easy Norbie.

Meanwhile the US/Can border is closed to non-essential traffic.

“Purpose of trip?”

“New trombone mpc”.

“Long tones!” Customs Officer clubs me over the head.

Fun thing to do: Check out Point Roberts WA on a map.

Bach5G wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:59 am Easy Norbie.

Meanwhile the US/Can border is closed to non-essential traffic.

“Purpose of trip?”

“New trombone mpc”.

“Long tones!” Customs Officer clubs me over the head.

Fun thing to do: Check out Point Roberts WA on a map.

Easy regarding what? People need to state facts regarding the situation not fears or hearsay. His link specifically stated that they don't know if the virus would last through the summer, and yet he stated it may end. Facts matter.

I had dinner on Friday with an emminent surgeon, someone who has been a government advisor on medical issues in the past, really knows his stuff... he said some interesting things. Nothing he said actually contradicts the news media but its amazing the different spin he put on the same scenario, here is some of what he said.

It is 'just' another incident of a virus crossing over just like 4 or 5 others in the last 2 or 3 deacdes.

This virus is almost identical to the SARS virus of 3 years ago just an odd geno different.

This virus's actually characteristic symptoms are fractionally worse than the SARS but way way less than the Spanish Flu. The Spanish Flu's characteristic was to produce 6 times its own volume in water once it entered the body. This led to almost everyone who died in 1918 drowning. It should be noted we now know much more about draining lungs and treating Pneumonia today than we did then not to even mention the fact that we have some technology like incubaters and oxygen. I mention this because he said the present virus seems to have the characteristic of only 2 or possibly 3 times its volume.

This is not to in anyway diminish the magnitude of what we are facing or the contagous nature of it. In a way he was saying it is 'just flu' (dont jump on me for saying that - it is just as serious but it is flu not a new disease).

It sounds too obvious to say this but the reason it is so contagous is because it is new to us and therefore we have no immunity to protect us. Not because it is some super charged never before seen virus, he actually said this virus is not actually particularly robust. However... this does mean that as we all recover from it the natural pool of resistant humans increases dramatically almost at the same rate as it accelerates. If we are to believe the latest reports coming out of China they have passed this point now and in fact it is decelarting if there is such a scenario. We in the West however are somewhat behind the time scale so still have the peak yet to come.

Going back to Harrisons point my chap did say that these things do go in waves, they peak then fall back then come again (though each time slightly less severe) so actually what Harrison heard could be true, not because of the climate but because of the timing.

He also went on to say that in his humble opinion it is likely that in the UK we are likely to see less than a 1% mortality rate. Since there are 66 million of us (depending on whose figures you read) in the UK thats still eye wateringly tragic but it also means that almost everyone we know will get better and many will not even know they have had it.

I make no comment on the measures our different countries have been taking to combat the problem I am fully supportive of whatever they do and if it saves one life I'd consider it worthwhile. Weve never before tried to kill a pandemic weve always just responded. However the news media dont really seem interested in reporting the more positive factors but dwell on the armageddon aspect.

This is obviously a jumble of what my learned friend told me and my own recollections and interpretations so dont shoot me for putting my head above the parapet and I am not claiming any authority in the matter just passing on a conversation that I thought was interesting and held merit. It was more encouraging than what teh British media have been handing out.

The world will return to normality eventually we just have to survive for a bit and I know thats the tricky part, especially if you dont have work and/or you lose someone you love.

Doug

Let's not downplay a 1 percent mortality rate... Assuming only half of Americans are infected, that's still 1.5 million deaths directly from the virus, not counting those from hospital overcrowding related issues.

DougHulme wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:50 pm

He also went on to say that in his humble opinion it is likely that in the UK we are likely to see less than a 1% mortality rate.

Doug

Was that a 1% mortality rate overall population? Or 1% of infected people, there's a big difference.

Pre59 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:56 pm

DougHulme wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:50 pm

He also went on to say that in his humble opinion it is likely that in the UK we are likely to see less than a 1% mortality rate.

Doug

Was that a 1% mortality rate overall population? Or 1% of infected people, there's a big difference.

I'm pretty sure it's 1% of infecteds. The normal flu mortality rate is 0.05% of infecteds. Some of the data from China indicated 3% of infecteds, but that may be due to a low test rate. Note that most victims are people who are older than 60, have high blood pressure, or have breathing disorders; or any combination of the above.

With all respect to the surgeon's opinion mentioned (and I am not attacking the poster for sharing it), I'd rather rely on epidemiologists and others with experience with infectious diseases to formulate an opinion on this.

by norbie2018 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:39 pm
With all respect to the surgeon's opinion mentioned (and I am not attacking the poster for sharing it), I'd rather rely on epidemiologists and others with experience with infectious diseases to formulate an opinion on this.

I cant comment on the States but over here the problem is we are not accepting the expert and largely unbiased opinion of the government advisors we are listening to the news medias interpretation of that advice and formulating our own opinions based on that instead of accepting that of those wiser. Its like it was a political issue rather than a scientific one. The government (probably on both sides of The Atlantic) are suffering a lack of confidence because almost half the population think the party that won the elction doesent represent them and therefore must be lying or incompetent!

I am not refferring to you Norbie in saying that its just your comment connected with that thought. I agree with your point (though I think the doctor does have some experience in these things too). In answer to another point yes it was less than 1% of those infected which yes I take the point that is still a huge number; though over here last year was a bad year for what we are now calling 'winter flu' and we actually had a fractionally higher death rate than that 1%. Maybe that 3% in China is due to not so good health care for the vunerable people that Bruce listed or just over whelming numbers that such a huge population generates. That said its higher in Italy too.

My friend and wonderful bass player Steve Whipple put a list together of professionals on all instruments that are offering remote lessons. If it hasn’t already become clear to you, the current situation has been absolutely devastating to professional musicians. Many live week to week on what they can hustle up and in a very short space of time literally everything has been taken off of their calendars.

There are some AMAZING trombone players on this list. If you are in a financial position to do it and you’ve been thinking about having a remote lesson with a world class performer now is the time!

There are also people offering lessons on pretty much any instrument and musical subject you can think of, so utilize that and please share far and wide.




Our very own Nick Grinder is on that list. If you haven’t checked out his latest album Farallon you really must. I’m sure you could purchase a copy directly from Nick and then take an awesome lesson or series of lessons with him. He’s a great improviser, has great technique, has checked out all sorts of gear, and is just a really nice guy - though we never get to work together

Now replace Nick’s name with any name on that list. This is a collection of deeply skilled artists who can really help you realize that next step in your musical development. But, you know, still grab a lesson and CD (LP?) or download from Nick cause he’s a bad dude.

MalecHeermans wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:52 pm My friend and wonderful bass player Steve Whipple put a list together of professionals on all instruments that are offering remote lessons.

Fantastic job.

Hope this helps some of these deserving (and increasingly desperate) folks.

I'm not a doctor or epidemiologist, but some of the numbers advanced here are way off from officially reported numbers, for instance the death rate is certainly much higher than 1% of confirmed cases. All the publicly available tallies point to a higher number. The mortality rate in China is reported as just under 4% but it might very well have been downplayed by the Chinese authorities (just like they knew far earlier about the epidemics than they admitted at first — this regime will go to great length to save face). Close to 8% in Italy, and estimated at 7% worldwide. Yes there are places with lower number, Switzerland is reported at 1%, Belgium 0.8%. But overall, much higher that 1%. And in the US, too early to really tell and the data is very patchy and sketchy because of all the early testing problems(just look at the CDC reports and all the caveats they include about incomplete data), but given the abysmal state of healthcare availability, I'm not holding my breath. Of course those are rates among confirmed cases only and the death rate among overall cases is necessarily lower, but that's the same with every disease, you can't know the real death rate as you can't know how many cases go unreported. The flu is not 1% death rate in the US, by the way, it's typically 1% hospitalization rate and 0.1% death rate according to the CDC. People have to stop comparing this to the seasonal flu. It doesn't compare.

But the more important numbers are really the spread rate and the rate of cases that require hospitalization and/or intensive care. There are finite numbers of ICU beds and respirators, and if we run out of them because we can't slow the spread, that's the ball game. That's the real problem here, not so much that the virus is new or particularly deadly.

^It's hyperbolic to discuss the death rate in such terms. Though the number of infected is likely much higher than reported, the death rate is likely much lower.

I know that the US healthcare system is routinely scorned, especially by Europeans, but I can say that it is second-to-none in terms of the quality of the workforce (physicians and nurses), and in terms of its academic and analytic capability.

Here in the US, the CDC is absolutely an obstacle to effectively combating the outbreak. The state and local health authorities, however, have been performing admirably. The shelter-in-place orders (like the one I am currently under) are instituted by local authority in order to preserve and enhance access to healthcare. It seems quite disingenuous to critique the US healthcare system in comparison to European single-payer systems under the circumstances, where Italy especially seems to have acted far too late, and the UK seems headed down an even worse path.

The truth is we won't know accurate death rates for months or even years to come. We simply don't have enough data. I agree that what states and local municipalities to combat the spread will likely have a significant impact in reducing the amount of deaths. Remember, this should allow hospitals enough staffing & beds to take care of the people who do contract the illness.

A friend who works in the public health department at UChicago says that the US is essentially 11 days behind Italy in all facets of this pandemic. Very disheartening.

It's hard, I think, for most people to contemplate exponential growth. A thing starts small, but numbers exist so you know the size, and it's growing increasingly fast, but it's still small. And the numbers seem small for a long time during the ramp-up. Then suddenly, the numbers are too big, and it seems to have happened overnight. The climate catastrophe is like that. And locomotive headlights.

11561man wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:12 am A friend who works in the public health department at UChicago says that the US is essentially 11 days behind Italy in all facets of this pandemic. Very disheartening.

I believe you may have misinterpreted that. We are on a delay in terms of the spread, however many US responses (distancing, shutdowns) were initiated at an earlier stage than in Italy- at least this is what I have been led to believe.

Baileyman is right. just now in the UK numbers are low, lower in fact than seasonal numbers last year in the County I live in there are just 270 cases and only 3 deaths with a population of about 4 million. You could feel quite good about that if it were not for the fact that it is as baileyman describes. It is frightening to think what may happen in Portsmouth where I live its not such a big city, less than 500,000 anyway, yet it is the most denseley populated city in Europe (its on an island its gone up instead of out!) but at the moment only one case. Not sure at the moment Paul why you think the UK is headed down a worse path than Italy? I think our health system even if stretched as hard as Italy is better organised and will cope better, though we still dont have enough ventialters by any standards. Maybe its the calm before the storm?

The UK is more proximal to the worst-hit areas, and the government threw all of its chips behind the "herd immunity" theory until two days ago. Even though the guidance from BoJo's government has changed to be slightly more sensible, schools in the UK are still open, and to my knowledge, no shelter-in-place/quarantine orders have been issued.

It's interesting in Japan here. I think it is clear that the government is not doing enough testing, so the number of cases is artificially low. HOWEVER:

It is not a pandemic here. People are not getting sick at some accelerated rate. Everyone is wearing their face masks (which people do all the time here anyways, if they have a cold or if that have allergies), so I think this helps prevent a lot of transmissions. There was a run on toilet paper which is now over, and masks are now hard to find, but nothing else seems to be happening like the freak out that is going on in the US and Europe. If people were dying from respiratory complications at an accelerated rate here, there would be a panic, but that's not the case.

This is despite the fact that Sapporo was LOADED with tourists for the ice festival. And a government response that basically said, too late in the game, "yeah, no big gatherings,we guess. Schools maybe can close if they want. Companies can make their own choice about remote work."

Completely different from what I'm hearing about in other countries.

Hey Harrison, can you send me an N95 mask and some hand sanitizer?

No. That would start a panic! Besides, I said masks are hard to find.

I just saw a segment on tv that showed Chinese cops wearing helmets that were equipped with scanners so that at a glance the cops could see who had a temperature. Sort of like night vision goggles I guess.

In N America we’ve run out of the Q-tip swabs.

Bach5G wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:44 pm I just saw a segment on tv that showed Chinese cops wearing helmets that were equipped with scanners so that at a glance the cops could see who had a temperature. Sort of like night vision goggles I guess.

In N America we’ve run out of the Q-tip swabs.

Those helmets are actually designed to identify people whose blood burns for democracy.

Bach5G wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:44 pm In N America we’ve run out of the Q-tip swabs.

Heard on the radio that most of our medical sample swabs are made in Italy!

I spent nearly 50-years in the media in one way or another - including more than 20 as a news and documentary producer. In judging what you hear on the news consider that the person who wrote the script, and the person who read it, probably avoided every science and math course possible in college. I knew several reporters who scanned college courses and selected journalism because the major had no math requirement. In the days before the internet, I was surprised that almost all reporters I knew had no reading material at home - no books, no magazines, no newspapers.

I listen to all news reports very carefully and try to get source information before believing anything.

SimmonsTrombone wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:05 am In judging what you hear on the news consider that the person who wrote the script, and the person who read it, probably avoided every science and math course possible in college. I knew several reporters who scanned college courses and selected journalism because the major had no math requirement. In the days before the internet, I was surprised that almost all reporters I knew had no reading material at home - no books, no magazines, no newspapers.

This doesn't seem to be universally true. The science and health reporters on National Public Radio (a major source of my information) seem educated and well-informed on their specialties, and (as a scientist myself) I believe that I am getting as straight a story from them as can be expected – especially when not everything is known.

Our President is not helping when he publicly advocates use of a malaria drug as a COVID-19 antiviral (over the loud protests of his own medical experts), even though it has never been tested as an appropriate therapy. Trump claims that he is a "smart guy" and has "heard good things" about this drug, and has a strong feeling that it will work.

Trump must be a subscriber to the MYASS program (look it up)

I would love for this malaria drug to be effective, but we have to prove it out. This takes WAY more than a few days.

The French and a rep from WHO stated that Ibuprofen and other NSAIDs can exacerbate the symptoms of covid 19. However, researchers from our country are coming out and saying that's bunk. It's hard to know what is truth or fact so early in the situation. I do believe it's irresponsible for for saying any medicine is helpful or harmful without the proper research to prove such. However, I do understand that doctors and Healthcare Providers on the front line have to use their best judgement when using medicines that are unproven for treating covid 19.

There’s nothing to suggest we’ve turned the corner on this.

This morning the talking heads on tv were on about US senators reassuring the public while, at the same time, dumping their stocks. I’m shocked.

Illinois just issued a stay-at-home order less than 24 hours after California.

My 26 hours a week part time job is at an auto parts store, considered an "essential business" so we will stay open along with supermarkets, gas stations, etc. I'm retired, got bored, got this job to keep busy and not for the money. Today corporate cut back the hours we are open so my work hours are being cut almost in half. I have an 87 year old housebound mother in law who doesn't drive and my wife just had foot surgery so I am getting her mom's prescriptions and groceries and taking her to doctor's appointments. Last thing I want to do is pass the virus on to her. I figure it isn't worth the risk working retail and getting exposed, so next week is my last until this all blows over. My boss is cool with it, others need the hours more than I do anyway.

BGuttman wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:41 pm

Bach5G wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:09 pm I’m listening to Trump’s speech. It sounds like he’s coming down with something.

He was coming down with something in 2015. He sounds like my mother-in-law in the early stages of dementia.

This is my impression too. My (maternal) grandmother did the same squinting and grimacing when she developed dementia, as he does. She also clenched her hands, to keep them from shaking, in a very similar way as Trump; so it's not too far fetched to assume there's something coming down.

On topic: I lost a three gig weekend with a Big Band because the events got cancelled due to Corona restrictions, and then got sick myself. I'm not sure I'm Corona infected, but the restrictions in Sweden are to stay at home if you have ever the slightest symptom related to a cold or the flu. So I've been at home from the school where I teach (music) for a week alreday, and since whatever infection I have seems to be a dogged one (with recurring symptoms), it's likely I may be quarantined at home next week too.

Then, when I finally recover, all events are cancelled, all venues are closed; school (all schools) might be closed and all orchestras and bands are on hiatus.....

Bach5G wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:33 pm There’s nothing to suggest we’ve turned the corner on this.

This morning the talking heads on tv were on about US senators reassuring the public while, at the same time, dumping their stocks. I’m shocked.

Some people were calling this insider trading. Those people clearly have never bought a stock or watched the market, or the news. Especially during a financial crisis Sigh...

If we had seen politicians dumping stocks in January, when the virus was in it's earliest stages and only just leaving China, before any policy decisions were made, then that would some unethical behavior. Everyone can clearly see the market taking a dump.

Young people should be snatching up stocks now while they are on sale. Older people (including nearly every politician) would be fools to watch their stocks ride on towards zero with their retirement around the corner. Moving funds over to low risk investments needed to happen for all old people brave enough to be in the market in the first place, as soon as it became clear that the market was in for a turn.

I can't stress enough, that not only politicians, but everyone's mom and dad or Grandma and Grandpa should be avoiding risk during uncertain financial times. It's not their job to keep the stock market floating. Time is not on their side.

What is there to be shocked about? They are most likely moving their money from corporate stocks over to government and municipal bonds, one way or the other. That's not exactly unhelpful to society.

harrisonreed wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:52 pm
If we had seen politicians dumping stocks in January, when the virus was in it's earliest stages and only just leaving China, before any policy decisions were made, then that would some unethical behavior. Everyone can clearly see the market taking a dump.

..,

What is there to be shocked about? They are most likely moving their money from corporate stocks over to government and municipal bonds, one way or the other. That's not exactly unhelpful to society.

Burr made 33 transactions, all sales, on Feb 23, even as he was reassuring Americans that everything was under control.

Shocked:

Bach5G wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:47 pm

Burr made 33 transactions, all sales, on Feb 23, even as he was reassuring Americans that everything was under control.

Shocked:

So he should have said, "everything is not alright", while selling all his stock and moving over to risk adverse investing? Or just nothing at all?

In any case, again, that was the time for risk taking older people to move over to bonds and safer investments ... What should they have done?

Also, this means that stocks are on sale:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/redmondreg ... o.html/amp

So heres a thing... I teach children and work with their familes who have special needs,often from abused or impoverished backgrounds. they never get music lessons at school because even if it costs £10 they wont do it and if it needs 10 minutes extra curricular they wont stay and thats if they are at school in the first place - so that sets the scene. One of the characteristics of these families is they never listen to the news at least 'proper' news (and I loved simmons Trombone contribution on that subject) They dont watch TV and if they do and the news comes on - they switch channels, they rarely listen to the radio and the same thing if they do and the news comes on they switch channels, they never buy a newspaper (quite a few cant read!). So these days they get their 'news' from facebook, instagram and each other. So Thursday someone who lives in Portsmouth has a picture of a group of army personnel coming into Portsmouth last year for the security of President Trumps visit (you can clearly see its Portsmouth in the background) they caption it "taken this morning as troops arrive to administer the Coronovirus outbreal in Portsmouth" A couple of minutes later someone else who has a photograph of the police policing a previous football game at the local Team with horses puts up "Yes the horses are out too to keep order". Well amongst those who do not listen to daily briefings or read a newspaper or even the (unreliable) talking heads of the main TV channels it is now understood and accepted that some kind of 'Marshal Rule' now exists in the city of Portsmouth! - its like hundreds of people (its a small city) totally believe its all true and there have been other rumours and mistruths attached as well. You can see how social media could completely blow any semblence of order and best intentions of the government and local authorities out of the water!! Frightening.

Looks like a pump and dump Harrison. What you want from your elected representatives. Our so-called leaders speak.

Bach5G wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:15 am Looks like a pump and dump Harrison. What you want from your elected representatives. Our so-called leaders speak.

"Pump and dump" doesn't apply to this situation... it's just a "dump".

If you have an interest in investing, I would actually love to talk about that. I have a real passion for investing!

I'm going to bow out, because I can't stand politics. I don't want to get on anybody's bad side.

“Pump” if you’re assuring everybody that everything is fine, dump, well, self-explanatory.

I’ve been playing defence for several years now. Some cash, some bonds, mostly dividend paying stocks and some Canadian banks. The timing could be better, as my retirement window is now, but overall I’d been preparing for a market downturn.

Bach5G wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:18 pm “Pump” if you’re assuring everybody that everything is fine, dump, well, self-explanatory.

That's an opinion, "everything is fine". Usually, a company will cook the books, or release false financial information, or hype up a non-existent business model before an IPO. Then there has to be an upside on the individual stock. Then the insiders dump their shares. The pump and dump. What individual stock are you talking about being pumped? The upside on the market as a whole has been going on for years now, and there definitely was no upside going on while politicians were talking about things being fine. Just downside.

You can't pump and dump the US market. Especially with an opinion, and as an individual investor that doesn't have a significant share in the entire market.

But seriously, this now has nothing to do with Corona Virus. I love investing discussions but we should do it in a different thread.

I knew things were bad, but …

A close relative is a Registered Nurse whose current assignment is at the Emergency Department at Yale New Haven (Connecticut) Hospital – a major urban healthcare center. She has been on duty for nearly 100 hours this past week (but thankfully, is just beginning 10 days off – unless they call her back on an emergency basis).

Of the hundreds of patients she has seen this week, 10 have been confirmed positive for COVID-19. I guess it’s good that they are able to test those patients and confirm their illness.

But what’s completely unacceptable is that the medical staff does not have appropriate protective equipment – especially the all-important N95 Respirator Masks. The recommendations for these tight-fitting masks is that the seal be checked each time they are donned (to avoid leakage around the edges), and that each mask “ideally should be discarded after each patient encounter and after aerosol-generating procedures. It should also be discarded when it becomes damaged or deformed; no longer forms an effective seal to the face; becomes wet or visibly dirty; breathing becomes difficult; or if it becomes contaminated with blood, respiratory or nasal secretions, or other bodily fluids from patients.”

Instead, at New Haven Hospital, each Emergency Department nurse was given a single mask and told to wear them until they are essentially unusable (filthy, wet, etc.) no matter how many patients are encountered – for days in some cases. This of course, presents an obvious risk of contamination to the medical staff, and of cross-contamination from one patient to another. That these widely produced masks are unavailable to the medical community is an unconscionable travesty, further exacerbated by our government’s seeming inability to respond during this multifaceted crisis. (Got any extra COVID test kits lying around, anyone?)

https://www.wtnh.com/news/new-haven-off ... -march-22/

In this, the wealthiest country in the world, this third-world situation gives us little to be proud of. The situation is dire now, and will surely get much worse before it abates. There’s plenty of blame to be spread around. And all most of us can do is to shelter in place!

Massachusetts reported three deaths yesterday and two the day before. Just to estimate what the real situation is here, I do this:

They probably got infected three weeks ago. The death rate is somewhere near 1%. So three weeks ago total infections could have been 300. The doubling period is perhaps three days, so there have been perhaps seven doublings over the three weeks: 2^7 = 128. Thus today's infection count could be about 40,000. MA population is approaching 7 million, so we are near 1/2% total infection rate.

The State is reporting about 650 infections, a bit lower than this estimate. This disparity is one of the costs of our testing bungle, not knowing the size of the problem. The other cost is not knowing where the problem is so it can be addressed directly.

Anyway, 40,000 virus shedders spread randomly around the state should make for a very decently high probability of infection. In a week with the number approaching 200,000 (unless our stay at home routine has an effect on doubling period) that probability should become quite high. It seems likely many residents have not come near an infected person so far. Soon the likelihood flips.

That's one of the problems without having enough testing out there. Some people may perceive these cases are very low and therefore the threat is very low. When in all likelihood the numbers are much higher then is being reported right now.

Just received a call from the NY Phil cancelling the rest of my subscription season -- all events through June 13 cancelled. Mahler 2 was on the docket for my April 24 Concert. Ah well.

Stay safe and healthy, all.

The PrimeMinster just announced they are going to pass laws this week closing all non essential shops, all public buildings, we will only be allowed out once a day to do essential shopping or take excercise. No travel to work unless you can prove you cant work from home and no non essential work anyway. No public assemblies of any kind accept funerals and then only the immediate family. No gathering of more than two people. No visitation of friends unless it is to supporet vulnerable people. Although the laws havent been passed the measures are to take effect from midnight tonight (GMT) This is for the whole of The UK.