Tariffs and Chinese horns

[Mikebmiller]

I know it's too early to tell for sure, but these Chinese tariffs have the potential to double the cost of a lot of instruments, icluding very nice horns from Eastman/Shires and student line horns from Conn Selmer and others. That could put a big dent in the beginner/intermediate horn market. Any chance that it might actually bring more manufacturing back to the US or has that boat already sailed?

[nateaff]

For that specific scenario it actually probably could, as there are American firms already set up with the tooling and machinery to make what will now be a competitive product. In a perfect world no one would be buying Q Series anymore because for similar money you might as well get the Made in USA one.

This is assuming that all of the raw materials and machinery needed to build a trombone are American products, which I seriously doubt, and that the cost of running a business in general doesn't go up, which I also doubt.

I think it's also worth thinking about it like the American car industry. Ford doesn't build a single small car in the US anymore, why? Building in the US is expensive and that cost is harder to swallow on products that don't sell for as much. I don't anticipate it'll be worth it for the US brands to push cheaper items in an industry that probably already has teeny tiny margins.

[Finetales]

Bad news for Y-Fort.

[nateaff]

Worse news for people whose instruments are no longer made in the US at all. I really doubt King and Conn are gonna revamp saxophone production after all these years.

[musicofnote]

For that specific scenario it actually probably could, as there are American firms already set up with the tooling and machinery to make what will now be a competitive product. In a perfect world no one would be buying Q Series anymore because for similar money you might as well get the Made in USA one.

LOL - Well, besides the fact that I don't need a new horn, here we're in a different situation. Many of us are generally boycotting buying all US goods, so even a Q series horn, which wouldn't have any additional tariffs here, we won't buy, because the company is under the sign/name of an American company. Just like we don't buy Procter & Gamble, Colgate, Nabisco etc. So we're also not buying made-in-US Shires. What we are buying are locally manufactured/owned products as well as simply any non-US products.

The actual physical response varies from country to country. In Canada, Denmark, Germany, besides no one buying US products, analog products made locally are selling more than before. AND some activists are turning US products upside down on the shelves to help shoppers more easily identify them. Also you see more people with apps which read QR codes on labels and tell the shopper where that product was made by whom. This last round of on-again-off-again tariffs, all of which broke a total of >15 international free trade agreements between various countries and regions and the US, have us PO'ed. Macron is urging Europeans to withdraw investments from US markets and invest in local companies. I'm not of that class, but I've heard that some are doing this and that too is growing.

So basically, in terms of music, many of us are looking locally - as Carney said a couple of days ago, the relationship t the US has changed and the trust is broken. So the perfect world doesn't just consist of the US. There are places in this world where Q horns, Y-fort and others will be just as popular as before as well as other non-US makers. They might even sell more as people refuse to consider made-in-US horns. While we're not trashing any US horns we might have, many are not considering them in the foreseeable future.

[musicofnote]

Bad news for Y-Fort.

Only in the US. Elsewhere, where people are boycotting US products and are not hitting Chinese products with tariffs, they will be as popular as before or more so.

[nateaff]

Egg on my face for not really factoring in non-American perspectives. I wouldn't blame anyone outside of the states one bit for boycotting US products.

The problem is that like so many Chinese products, American products are more or less ubiquitous, and raised prices (for seemingly no reason) just screw everybody over.

[stewbones43]

I am intrigued to know what will happen to companies like Rath and John Packer instruments. Some are made in China and shipped over to here in the UK. Then they are sent over to the US for you to buy.
Do they get hit with a 100+% tariff for being Chinese or will they get just the 10% for being from a British company? Or, heaven forbid, with they get hit with both tariffs.

This situation is a mess.

I'm not sure who is worse off, the USA with a leader who seems to make rash decisions and then changes them, or here in the UK where we have a leader who doesn't seem to know whether to make a decision or not.

Cheers

Stewbones43

[Finetales]

Bad news for Y-Fort.

Only in the US. Elsewhere, where people are boycotting US products and are not hitting Chinese products with tariffs, they will be as popular as before or more so.

It's still bad news for any company to lose a big market like the US, even if the sales don't change elsewhere. Their bottom line is still going to take a hit.

[musicofnote]

Only in the US. Elsewhere, where people are boycotting US products and are not hitting Chinese products with tariffs, they will be as popular as before or more so.

It's still bad news for any company to lose a big market like the US, even if the sales don't change elsewhere. Their bottom line is still going to take a hit.

In the sort term, yes. But again, here in Europe -if- the boycott of US goods expands and it seems to be, the US-made market here will shrink, with that shrinkage being taken up by the non-US brands. The total US population is 340 million. The total Schengen Zone population alone, excluding Asia, Canada, Mexico, Middle and South America etc. etc. is 420 million. That means there is quite a bit larger market outside of the US, which is excluding US goods compared to the market size which tariffs non-US brands ridiculously. So it could take some time, but the pressure should be felt, when existing stocks are sold and people need to import. Nice report on Ford 150s in Canada. These are still under tariff, inasmuch as the engines are made in Canada and then sent to the US to be mounted and the vehicles then sent back to Canada to be sold. Tariffs at both sides. The trucks on the lots are at the "old" price which doesn't reflect the tariffs and they have, depending upon model 2-6 weeks of stock. So after that, they'll have to import with the tariffs.

Of course, US made vehicles including Tesla passenger cars all are available here. Up until February, only Tesla was selling, even if no CyberTrucks are street-legal here - not fulfilling safety regulations like all cars have to fulfil, even my Kia E-Niro. All the others just sitting on the lots, and especially now, not even Teslas are selling. That's not part of a trade war or unfair practices. It's simply not selling what the people with the wallets want. And now especially so, that Musk is so "popular " here. EV-sales are through the roof and Teslas are not amongst those being bought. That's what a buyers' boycott can achieve when well applied.

[Digidog]

Bad news for Y-Fort.

They could form the new Y-Front in this full scale tariff war that now is fanfared to the common man as something heralding paradise city.....

[WGWTR180]

I am intrigued to know what will happen to companies like Rath and John Packer instruments. Some are made in China and shipped over to here in the UK. Then they are sent over to the US for you to buy.
Do they get hit with a 100+% tariff for being Chinese or will they get just the 10% for being from a British company? Or, heaven forbid, with they get hit with both tariffs.

This situation is a mess.

I'm not sure who is worse off, the USA with a leader who seems to make rash decisions and then changes them, or here in the UK where we have a leader who doesn't seem to know whether to make a decision or not.

Cheers

Stewbones43

I'm with you on this. One thing for sure already. Rath instruments, the pro level line, are becoming very difficult to get. What most US stores are receiving are the "100" series instruments and not the single digit series. A BIG mess for sure.