Production wait times

sstelmack · Post by **sstelmack** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:26 am

I'm currently waiting on a custom Shires horn. The original production time was suppose to be 4 months. They have already extended that 3 times. I should be getting the horn next week, but now they are saying the middle of February. I understand things happen, but is this typical for new instruments? It seems excessive. And by now Covid really shouldn't be used as an excuse beyond the original long lead time.

In my line of work this would cost me pretty much all of my business and I wouldn't have any customers left. And I'm not certain they aren't going to extend it again.

I accepted the original lead time, but if it gets pushed out much further I might pull the order. I'm just not sure if I can get a similar spec horn any faster through another company.

I guess I would just like to know other's opinions and experiences when ordering custom horns. This is my first brand new horn and first customized for me.

Thanks!
sstelmack

Post by **BGuttman** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:35 am

There was a time where you plunked your money down on a Shires and waited 2 years1

There are a few things that could be affecting your delivery. It could be on a shipping container waiting outside Los Angeles harbor (a lot of Q instruments are assembled in China). The COVID epidemic has hit a new wave in New England and there may be a lack of labor at the Hopedale MA shop. They could just be experiencing high demand and if you ordered something exotic it may be delayed.

I agree that these continual delays are infuriating. Problem is they seem to be endemic in this plague-infested time. I'd bet you would have similar problems if you ordered a car or major appliance.

Post by **Doug Elliott** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:52 am

I don't know the situation at Shires, but stuff happens... people get sick or have other obligations, machines go down, supplies and tools don't always arrive when you need them. Production schedules get upset by lots of things.

In my own shop, the machine I use has been down for over 4 months now due to various electronic problems. I will probably get it running today, or at least this week. It takes a long time to recover.

DougHulme · Post by **DougHulme** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:41 am

Jaguar Land Rover, in the UK, are currently selling £80,000 Range Rovers without numerous chips in them along with the promise that when the chips arrive the main dealer will fit them imeadiately. I assume they will have taken all the bulbs out that should be lighting up in the meantime!!... 'stuff' happens... Doug

paulyg · Post by **paulyg** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:48 am

In my line of business, we have had to adjust to vendors simply not being able to deliver common off-the-shelf items. Everyone is having a bad time over this- businesses, vendors, customers, you name it.

It's OK to feel frustrated, but please also acknowledge that the situation is not unique to Shires. Folks who ordered cars are facing similar extended lead times, and automotive is not exactly a cottage industry. Your only safe bet is to get something that's in stock, probably at a hefty markup, but even then you're probably not going to wind up with exactly what you want, whether it's a car or a trombone (or a National Instruments compact daq chassis, but that's just me thinking about work).

Vegasbound · Post by **Vegasbound** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:52 am

Be patient, the horn will be worth the frustrating wait, then you can spend hours and hours practicing to your hearts content.

sstelmack · Post by **sstelmack** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:34 pm

Thank you all for the input. I do understand things are crazy at the moment. I will try to be patient. I would have just thought they would have worked all this into the original time line. It's the extra extensions that are driving me nuts. At this rate I'm going to get it after my current concert season and have to wait until next year to use it.

spencercarran · Post by **spencercarran** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 1:12 pm

Heck, I've been waiting months for a big retailer to deliver a pretty basic euphonium gig bag. Everybody's slammed, nobody's caught up with all their obligations. It sucks, but there's nothing much to do other than extend grace and understanding to each other.

Digidog · Post by **Digidog** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:54 pm

I have a custom Shires on order since late September. Just the other day I got a notification email that my horn is expected to ship late this month (December). The email was originally sent by Shires and forwarded to me through my vendor, but I have to take their word for it and that they genuinely mean to ship it soon.

Then again, I hear from acquaintances in the transportation business that shipping is in deep troubles worldwide; that there is a lack of containers, a shortage of personnel for the freighters and for the shipping companies, and that prices all through the chain of sending and handling have skyrocketed. So in the end, I really don't know what to expect.

All I can say is it seems that I placed my order at the right moment, because the quoted wait time was due about now and to me that isn't a very long wait. When I ordered a Master Built Strat (from Fender), I got a quote time for fourteen months, and I know some guitar builders - or even companies - have waiting times over two years. In the guitar world that seems to be fairly normal - or at the least not uncommon nor deterring. In fact: at guitar foras there are constantly stories of people having to wait several years, with huge down payments invested and great woes whether their instrument ever will be built or if they've fallen for a scam or a dishonest builder.

To the OP: I wouldn't let a prolonged wait discourage me. I have had so much direct and indirect email contact with Shires to trust them in doing their best with your order. However: It's your purchase, your order and your money, so I can only wish you the best and to ultimately finding the right desicion from what you want. I, personally, wouldn't think that any other manufacturers would fare any better, given all the chaos and havoc this pandemic has brought on. Good luck!

harrisonreed · Post by **harrisonreed** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:05 pm

Edwards delivered on time. They said three months, and it happened. They weren't waiting on parts made in the USA shipped to be assembled in China that needed to be shipped back to MA for finishing. You get what Eastman paid for.

You will get a great horn, I'm sure, but you pay for it in time to cut costs for Eastman.

Arvopart17 · Post by **Arvopart17** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:12 pm

It’s not just the custom shops, I ordered a replacement slide for a 2b+ From Conn in July this year and finally canceled the order in late November because it still wasn’t ready. I found a good used one instead. Waiting can stink, but it’s worth it for the right instrument.

sstelmack · Post by **sstelmack** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:28 pm

Digidog, I am happy your order seems to be coming in on time, but that is almost more frustrating for me. My order went in on the first day of September. I would have to wonder why orders would be taken out of order.

Also, in the consideration of shipping. I really think this shouldn't affect my order. I ordered a custom series horn and the customs never leave the states like the Q series do. And I was under the impression that all the parts for them are made and assemble here. I was actually quite happy that I found a fully American made horn that I liked.

hyperbolica · Post by **hyperbolica** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:17 pm

This is just me, but I've always felt Shires were adequate but never really outstanding. I'd check with M&W for something worth the wait.

Thrawn22 · Post by **Thrawn22** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:42 pm

I have a friend who went to BAC (god knows why) and placed and order in July and has yet to hear anything about it. He made a deposit too.

sstelmack · Post by **sstelmack** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:46 pm

I couldn't find any info on M&W. I've checked their site and their work looks amazing. I would like to see some third party reviews or input.

As for shires. Out of every horn I've been able to get my hands on they were the one that fit the best for me.

LeTromboniste · Post by **LeTromboniste** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:49 pm

Orders are almost always fulfilled out of order. For one thing, makers don't typically build each instrument individually from scratch to finish, they're making parts in batches. If someone's order includes parts they already are making for others, their instrument might end up being ready before another ordered earlier, for instance.

mrdeacon · Post by **mrdeacon** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:57 pm

LeTromboniste wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:49 pm Orders are almost always fulfilled out of order. For one thing, makers don't typically build each instrument individually from scratch to finish, they're making parts in batches. If someone's order includes parts they already are making for others, their instrument might end up being ready before another ordered earlier, for instance.

This! Especially if OP ordered something out of the norm like dependent valves or a handslide to custom specs. The fully custom horns will take longer than the "stock" custom horns.

harrisonreed · Post by **harrisonreed** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:20 pm

OP what horn did you order?

harrisonreed · Post by **harrisonreed** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:23 pm

Doug Elliott wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:52 am I don't know the situation at Shires, but stuff happens... people get sick or have other obligations, machines go down, supplies and tools don't always arrive when you need them. Production schedules get upset by lots of things.

In my own shop, the machine I use has been down for over 4 months now due to various electronic problems. I will probably get it running today, or at least this week. It takes a long time to recover.

sstelmack · Post by **sstelmack** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:55 pm

I ordered a Ralph Sauer model with a different slide and lead pipe. I don't think anything was out of the ordinary.

Burgerbob · Post by **Burgerbob** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:58 pm

sstelmack wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:55 pm I ordered a Ralph Sauer model with a different slide and lead pipe. I don't think anything was out of the ordinary.

Could be as simple as them waiting on the screwbell case to come in.

tbonesullivan · Post by **tbonesullivan** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:11 pm

sstelmack wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:26 amAnd by now Covid really shouldn't be used as an excuse beyond the original long lead time.

Covid continues to be a major issue worldwide, resulting in ever increasing lead times for just about everything. Combine this with lots of shortages from simple things like materials to things like control modules for CNC machines.

Also demand for a lot of things did not fall, like so many companies thought it would, which resulted in massive shortages.

Has Shires gotten any more specific regarding what is causing the delay?

harrisonreed · Post by **harrisonreed** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:42 pm

Take the chip shortage for example -- I was really looking forward to getting my first real camera and Sony has indefinitely suspended production of the model I want because there are no chips.

sstelmack · Post by **sstelmack** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:54 pm

I may have miss spoke. By saying it should not be an issue by now I mean that it should be figured into the process. When I first ordered the horn and they gave me the lead time, one of the things they said was due to Covid it is a bit longer than they wanted. I may be remembering it wrong, but I thought they said that they put in an extra month for cushion. The thing I don't like is the additional time. I was the market for a horn in September for my upcoming concert season. With the timeline I was given I thought I would have the horn just before my first concert and then be able to wrap up the season with it. I didn't like it but decided I would limp along on my old horn for a bit longer. At this point, if they add any more time to the wait I might be past my season. As of right now I have not heard any reasons for the delay, just that it is now scheduled for completion in mid February. It may sound petty to a lot of you, but if the estimated time was quoted at 5 to 6 months in the first place I probably would have moved on and found another horn.

LIBrassCo · Post by **LIBrassCo** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:08 pm

Things happen. I know personally I am behind. Got hit with an emergency appendectomy, post operative complications, got back in the shop just to get the flu, then had to take care of my 5 year old while she had it. That rolled into her being quarantined for covid exposure shortly after, and having to help her with virtual school daily. Im sure it sounds fairly bogus for anyone waiting for something from me, and I've done the best i can to get back on schedule, but sometimes there's no avoiding stuff.

OneTon · Post by **OneTon** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:29 pm

One of the problems with sending rank amateurs on the Challenger mission was that rank amateurs have no way to understand the risks of the mission, as might be expected of a career military pilot. It later turned out that NASA had got it wrong as well when the tiles were falling off and damaging the wing on acquiring their orbit. In any case, military pilots tended to know the history of the F-105, why it was called the “Thud,” and the limitations of technology at a given time. A military pilot could assess the dangers of making a space flight. A civilian might not.

Before I blame a supplier for not having a crystal ball, I would be asking myself what was my responsibility in this event. Did I not listen? Did I only hear what I wanted to here. Did I write out a case study to determine what were the risks and their impacts to the desired goal? If I did not, what would it have looked like had I done so?

Am I a good customer?

ngrinder · Post by **ngrinder** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:50 pm

harrisonreed wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:05 pm They weren't waiting on parts made in the USA shipped to be assembled in China that needed to be shipped back to MA for finishing. You get what Eastman paid for.

You will get a great horn, I'm sure, but you pay for it in time to cut costs for Eastman.

Is that the M.O. with the Custom horns these days? They're fabricated in MA, assembled in China, and then touched up back in the US? I didn't realize this.

sstelmack · Post by **sstelmack** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:57 pm

I own a business. I am proud of the fact that my company hits it's deadlines. We are not perfect, but one thing we do is never state a timeline that we know we can't make. After the crazy year we all have had we have adjusted our system. And I feel we have gotten pretty good at the adjustments by now. If something comes up that we can't control we make it very clear to our clients what is going on. I'm sorry if people don't like that some of us hold companies to what they say.

sstelmack · Post by **sstelmack** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:00 pm

ngrinder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:50 pm
harrisonreed wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:05 pm They weren't waiting on parts made in the USA shipped to be assembled in China that needed to be shipped back to MA for finishing. You get what Eastman paid for.

You will get a great horn, I'm sure, but you pay for it in time to cut costs for Eastman.
Is that the M.O. with the Custom horns these days? They're fabricated in MA, assembled in China, and then touched up back in the US? I didn't realize this.

No it isn't. That is what the do for the Q series. The custom line is suppose to be done totally in house in Boston.

paulyg · Post by **paulyg** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:01 pm

sstelmack wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:00 pm
ngrinder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:50 pm

Is that the M.O. with the Custom horns these days? They're fabricated in MA, assembled in China, and then touched up back in the US? I didn't realize this.
No it isn't. That is what the do for the Q series. The custom line is suppose to be done totally in house in Boston.

You're kidding yourself if you think that the custom instruments are made totally independent of the China-based operations at this point.

harrisonreed · Post by **harrisonreed** » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:21 pm

ngrinder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:50 pm
harrisonreed wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:05 pm They weren't waiting on parts made in the USA shipped to be assembled in China that needed to be shipped back to MA for finishing. You get what Eastman paid for.

You will get a great horn, I'm sure, but you pay for it in time to cut costs for Eastman.
Is that the M.O. with the Custom horns these days? They're fabricated in MA, assembled in China, and then touched up back in the US? I didn't realize this.

No I would have thought the Q series would be the one with delivery issues.

They make the bells, tubing, and valve sections in house for the custom horns, according to their website. That means everything else is likely imported, but honestly that's not a big deal. It would be a waste of time to be machining nuts and spit valve keys in a tiny shop. Could be what the holdup is still, though -- bracing and small parts not available.

Digidog · Post by **Digidog** » Fri Dec 24, 2021 5:52 am

sstelmack wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:28 pm Digidog, I am happy your order seems to be coming in on time, but that is almost more frustrating for me. My order went in on the first day of September. I would have to wonder why orders would be taken out of order.

Also, in the consideration of shipping. I really think this shouldn't affect my order. I ordered a custom series horn and the customs never leave the states like the Q series do. And I was under the impression that all the parts for them are made and assemble here. I was actually quite happy that I found a fully American made horn that I liked.

I'm sorry for unnecessarily upsetting you, because I just saw that I misread the transaction dates from my account: I ordered the horn in late August! The 26:th to be precise.

The first delivery quote I got, was late November, but that was quickly postponed. By then I had already talked to an acquaintance of mine who works with international logistics, whom told me that both domestic (Swedish) and international shipping were in a state of chaos, and that that chaos would persist well into 2022. To be honest, I've ordered many things with international shipping during 2021 (books, artist materials, amps and miscellaneous musical gear a.o.) and have never had or noticed any obvious delays or problems.

Also to mention, is that the response from Shires to my order was that they seemed to have no significant delays regarding materials, building or administration - nor forseeing any. As I percieved it from them, they seemed to have openings in their production due to decreasing demand and sales during the pandemic.

I have no idea if I've gotten everything wrong, but if there are significant differences in specifications between your horn and mine, that would be the only notable difference I could see that could explain why your order and mine differ in delivery time. Unless Shires got a drastic order increase in the time in between.

sstelmack · Post by **sstelmack** » Fri Dec 24, 2021 7:41 am

Oh no worries, I'm not really upset. Just a bit peeved.

When I talked to them they quoted that they were at 3 months but quoting 4 to be more safe, so it lines up with what you say.

I appreciate your (and the other's) input. It did help.

I'm going to bite my lip and just wait for the horn. Unless something goes really nuts...

As far as I'm concerned Shires has been great to work with besides this one hiccup. I hope I didn't taint anyone's opinion on them. I'll just have to adjust my timelines in the future if I need anything.

asmith · Post by **asmith** » Fri Dec 24, 2021 7:53 am

I know Shires was doing a large expansion on their factory last I heard from our rep. So that could be adding to the delay. They did announce the Custom Euphonium so I imagine they are tooling up for large scale production on those.

Also I have heard from several companies that metal suppliers are low on stock in some alloys. Most of the brass used by manufacturers comes from overseas, either Asia or Europe. The only company that is actually sourcing from the states right now is Conn-Selmer for any American made product line.

Crazy4Tbone86 · Post by **Crazy4Tbone86** » Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:25 pm

I sent a 1930s Conn euphonium valve cluster (4-valve oval port) to a business for a valve rebuild when my son was in 5th grade band. I was hoping the valves would be done in time for my son to play the instrument in 6th grade band.

The business still has not completed the valve cluster. My son is presently a junior…….in college.

I have been calling the business every two weeks and we have a lovely conversation every time. They always claim that the valve cluster will be “ready in two weeks.” This has been going on for about 10 years. On the positive side, they do feel bad about the delay and have promised to complete the job for free.

deanmccarty · Post by **deanmccarty** » Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:14 pm

I ordered a BAC back when Mike was just starting out… I was told 4-6 months… after LOTS of little to no communication I finally received my horn 17 months after ordering it… I chalked it up to growing pains for him.

Recently, I ordered a contrabass from Jürgen Voigt in Germany… I was told 10 weeks originally… I placed the order in February… it finally was shipped to Hornguys at the end of August… unfortunately it was damaged… so it went back to Germany… I finally received it around Thanksgiving. I wasn’t too upset about it all… with delays in all directions due to COViD it’s understandable.

In the end you will be glad you waited. Hang in there!

ngrinder · Post by **ngrinder** » Fri Dec 24, 2021 7:47 pm

harrisonreed wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:21 pm
ngrinder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:50 pm

Is that the M.O. with the Custom horns these days? They're fabricated in MA, assembled in China, and then touched up back in the US? I didn't realize this.
No I would have thought the Q series would be the one with delivery issues.

They make the bells, tubing, and valve sections in house for the custom horns, according to their website. That means everything else is likely imported, but honestly that's not a big deal. It would be a waste of time to be machining nuts and spit valve keys in a tiny shop. Could be what the holdup is still, though -- bracing and small parts not available.

Ah, I misread what you wrote. Agreed about the Q Series stuff.

MikeS · Post by **MikeS** » Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:39 pm

It could be worse. Chris Wilkes makes wooden flutes that are works of art as well as fantastic players.

http://wilkesflutes.co.uk/flutes.html

When his wait list got to seventeen years he decided that he would either be retired or deceased by then and simply stopped accepting orders.

harrisonreed · Post by **harrisonreed** » Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:38 pm

MikeS wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:39 pm It could be worse. Chris Wilkes makes wooden flutes that are works of art as well as fantastic players.

http://wilkesflutes.co.uk/flutes.html

When his wait list got to seventeen years he decided that he would either be retired or deceased by then and simply stopped accepting orders.

What, he is too stuck up to take on an apprentice?

bassclef · Post by **bassclef** » Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:20 pm

harrisonreed wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:38 pm What, he is too stuck up to take on an apprentice?

I've never heard of him before this thread. I spent 90 seconds on his website and now I feel confident that I know the answer to that question.

andym · Post by **andym** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 1:10 am

There’s a guitar maker in the San Francisco Bay Area who makes extremely creative, unusual instruments. He has a waiting list but just makes what he is moved to make and then goes down the waiting list and matches the instrument to someone who wanted something along those lines. It’s not a usual business model but it works for him.

ithinknot · Post by **ithinknot** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 3:29 am

bassclef wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:20 pm
MikeS wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:39 pm It could be worse. Chris Wilkes makes wooden flutes that are works of art as well as fantastic players.

http://wilkesflutes.co.uk/flutes.html

When his wait list got to seventeen years he decided that he would either be retired or deceased by then and simply stopped accepting orders.

harrisonreed wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:38 pm What, he is too stuck up to take on an apprentice?
I've never heard of him before this thread. I spent 90 seconds on his website and now I feel confident that I know the answer to that question.

Your http-based personality divination notwithstanding, this phenomenon is very common among instrument makers, especially in the UK. The employer regulations on workspace layout, equipment specifications and safety make it prohibitively expensive for many people who originally set up solo to take on an apprentice (or to expand with extra staff). I have several colleagues who would love to have trained apprentices but who would need to have relocated and replaced the majority of their toys to do so. Depending on your outlook, this is either the heavy hand of government choking the small business owner, or a regrettable side-effect of reasonable laws intended to prevent a 16 year old losing a hand on their first day

harrisonreed · Post by **harrisonreed** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 5:25 am

bassclef wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:20 pm
harrisonreed wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:38 pm What, he is too stuck up to take on an apprentice?
I've never heard of him before this thread. I spent 90 seconds on his website and now I feel confident that I know the answer to that question.

Yeah, if your wait-list is 17 years, you aren't charging enough AND your customers don't actually need to use your product. "I definitely need this flute once my career is over and you're possibly dead, Chris"

Riiiiiight.

If you're flute is THAT good, people will pay more if they actually need it. It might be! People pay 42 quintrillions dollars for strad violins. Then people/institutions who really need your product don't have to wait 17 years. And maybe you can, like, hire a deserving apprentice. I don't know how bad the regulations are in the UK, but you can't tell me that selling a $300,000 flute wouldn't be enough to overcome that. Likewise, what are you doing, thinking the flute you need now is the flute you'll need 17 years from now? Crazy.

ithinknot · Post by **ithinknot** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:08 am

harrisonreed wrote: ↑Sat Dec 25, 2021 5:25 am Yeah, if your wait-list is 17 years, you aren't charging enough AND your customers don't actually need to use your product. "I definitely need this flute once my career is over and you're possibly dead, Chris"

Riiiiiight.

If you're flute is THAT good, people will pay more if they actually need it. It might be! People pay 42 quintrillions dollars for strad violins. Then people/institutions who really need your product don't have to wait 17 years. And maybe you can, like, hire a deserving apprentice. I don't know how bad the regulations are in the UK, but you can't tell me that selling a $300,000 flute wouldn't be enough to overcome that. Likewise, what are you doing, thinking the flute you need now is the flute you'll need 17 years from now? Crazy.

Haha. I'm not saying it isn't preposterous... but you're also ignoring a) the Idea of Art, which is as real as you want it to be, and b) the fact that no one really Needs Needs any of these things. When it's this long a wait, the buyer may be just as interested in supporting the creator, and the creation of something wonderful that will outlive them. I mean, you'd cope just fine on an 88H.

And plenty of people don't want to be The $300k Guy, even if they could get away with it. Unless you're some sort of Randian psychopath, this is commendable.

FWIW, my harpsichord teacher waited exactly 17 years for an instrument. The circumstances were specific - the builder was The original and preeminent European maker of the post-war revival, and also a friend - and as far as 'the flute you need' goes, you weren't placing The Order on day 1, you were taking a place on the list and deciding what you wanted when the time came. Was it worth it? It's one of maybe the three best instruments I've ever played. (And he was building better instruments in 1985 than in 1968 when the order was placed

)

As business, though, of course it's ridiculous. I wouldn't choose to live with perpetual obligations hanging over me, especially if any money had already changed hands.

(Obviously, this all only applies to sole trader artist/craftspeople... if you're Shires, just give more pessimistic delivery timescales, and then surprise people by occasionally overperforming.)

Happy Christmas.

Burgerbob · Post by **Burgerbob** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:08 am

harrisonreed wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:38 pm
MikeS wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:39 pm It could be worse. Chris Wilkes makes wooden flutes that are works of art as well as fantastic players.

http://wilkesflutes.co.uk/flutes.html

When his wait list got to seventeen years he decided that he would either be retired or deceased by then and simply stopped accepting orders.
What, he is too stuck up to take on an apprentice?

This is exactly why the constant growth capitalism model is so insidious. There's no reason this guy needed to expand and make more flutes, but we all feel like he should because...?

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:08 am

LIBrassCo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:08 pm Things happen. I know personally I am behind. Got hit with an emergency appendectomy, post operative complications, got back in the shop just to get the flu, then had to take care of my 5 year old while she had it. That rolled into her being quarantined for covid exposure shortly after, and having to help her with virtual school daily. Im sure it sounds fairly bogus for anyone waiting for something from me, and I've done the best i can to get back on schedule, but sometimes there's no avoiding stuff.

It doesn't sound bogus at all to me. (Disclaimer: I'm not waiting on stuff from you, but I am waiting on stuff from contractors with similar stories.) Stuff happens, and in pandemic times there is one more club for reality to clobber us with. I hope your customers/clients are patient with you.

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:29 am

OneTon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:29 pm One of the problems with sending rank amateurs on the Challenger mission was that rank amateurs have no way to understand the risks of the mission, as might be expected of a career military pilot. It later turned out that NASA had got it wrong as well when the tiles were falling off and damaging the wing on acquiring their orbit. In any case, military pilots tended to know the history of the F-105, why it was called the “Thud,” and the limitations of technology at a given time. A military pilot could assess the dangers of making a space flight. A civilian might not.

Before I blame a supplier for not having a crystal ball, I would be asking myself what was my responsibility in this event. Did I not listen? Did I only hear what I wanted to here. Did I write out a case study to determine what were the risks and their impacts to the desired goal? If I did not, what would it have looked like had I done so?

Am I a good customer?

(Emphasis added)

You have your shuttle disasters mixed up. Challenger was the solid rocket booster (SRB) failure, Columbia was the re-entry disaster due to wing damage.

The Challenger incident was actually much worse than you suggest. If you'd like a scientist's assessment devoid of bureaucratic input and control, read Feynman's What Do You Care What Other People Think?. (The second half of the book is about the Challenger disaster and the Rogers Commission.) The bottom line is that NASA and Thiokol engineers knew that there were serious problems with the SRBs, and communicated those problems to NASA management. They knew the dangers were increased at low temperatures and attempted to scrub the launch: there was ice on the SRBs. NASA's management overruled the engineers. The net result was seven dead astronauts, including a schoolteacher.

Feynman felt that his estimated probability of a catastrophic launch failure of around 1/100 was an acceptable failure rate. His primary objection was to NASA completely fictitious assessment of 1/100,000 being presented to non-professionals as an argument from authority (trust us, we're professionals and we know what we're doing). Basically, he felt they should have told McAuliffe (and everyone else) that there was a 1% chance of the thing blowing up, and allowed her (and everyone else) to make their own decisions.

The Columbia disaster showed that NASA still had a long way to go in cleaning up its act.

In response to your last question, yes, you are a good customer.

ithinknot · Post by **ithinknot** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 9:21 am

Burgerbob wrote: ↑Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:08 am
harrisonreed wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:38 pm What, he is too stuck up to take on an apprentice?
This is exactly why the constant growth capitalism model is so insidious. There's no reason this guy needed to expand and make more flutes, but we all feel like he should because...?

Yup. Simply doing a thing well, at a scale that supports whomever one needs to support, shouldn't be a countercultural anomaly. (There's also the small matter of relentless growth sending the planet straight into the chipper.)

SwissTbone · Post by **SwissTbone** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 9:33 am

Burgerbob wrote: ↑Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:08 am
harrisonreed wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:38 pm

What, he is too stuck up to take on an apprentice?
This is exactly why the constant growth capitalism model is so insidious. There's no reason this guy needed to expand and make more flutes, but we all feel like he should because...?

Absolutely! This guy is having the time of his life building flutes the way he wants to build them. And it seems to me he makes enough money doing that to live comfortably.

Why should he expand or take an apprentice! To make more money? He would lose some control of what he is doing. Having an apprentice or expanding means more administrative work etc etc.

It may seem egoistic not transmitting his wisdom. But why should he care? He just does his thing and it seems to work for him. I'd probably do the same.

OneTon · Post by **OneTon** » Sat Dec 25, 2021 1:04 pm

Dennis wrote: ↑Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:29 am
OneTon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:29 pm One of the problems with sending rank amateurs on the Challenger mission was that rank amateurs have no way to understand the risks of the mission, as might be expected of a career military pilot. It later turned out that NASA had got it wrong as well when the tiles were falling off and damaging the wing on acquiring their orbit. In any case, military pilots tended to know the history of the F-105, why it was called the “Thud,” and the limitations of technology at a given time. A military pilot could assess the dangers of making a space flight. A civilian might not.

Before I blame a supplier for not having a crystal ball, I would be asking myself what was my responsibility in this event. Did I not listen? Did I only hear what I wanted to here. Did I write out a case study to determine what were the risks and their impacts to the desired goal? If I did not, what would it have looked like had I done so?

Am I a good customer?
(Emphasis added)

You have your shuttle disasters mixed up. Challenger was the solid rocket booster (SRB) failure, Columbia was the re-entry disaster due to wing damage.

The Challenger incident was actually much worse than you suggest. If you'd like a scientist's assessment devoid of bureaucratic input and control, read Feynman's What Do You Care What Other People Think?. (The second half of the book is about the Challenger disaster and the Rogers Commission.) The bottom line is that NASA and Thiokol engineers knew that there were serious problems with the SRBs, and communicated those problems to NASA management. They knew the dangers were increased at low temperatures and attempted to scrub the launch: there was ice on the SRBs. NASA's management overruled the engineers. The net result was seven dead astronauts, including a schoolteacher.

Feynman felt that his estimated probability of a catastrophic launch failure of around 1/100 was an acceptable failure rate. His primary objection was to NASA completely fictitious assessment of 1/100,000 being presented to non-professionals as an argument from authority (trust us, we're professionals and we know what we're doing). Basically, he felt they should have told McAuliffe (and everyone else) that there was a 1% chance of the thing blowing up, and allowed her (and everyone else) to make their own decisions.

The Columbia disaster showed that NASA still had a long way to go in cleaning up its act.

In response to your last question, yes, you are a good customer.

Dennis,

I wasn’t confused but what I wrote was extremely confusing. Thank you for bringing out the paradigm shift that I was trying to extract from the two separate events. And thanks for the reference. I will try to a copy.

Richard